The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, forms the core driver behind the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Multiple Democratic candidates, including former state Senator Richard Pan and others with established local networks, are contesting the June 2026 top-two primary in a seat previously held by Ami Bera, who shifted to the neighboring district. Independent candidate Kevin Kiley, the former Republican incumbent from the adjacent area, and limited Republican field presence face structural headwinds in a district rated D+8 by partisan voting indexes and assessed as Solid or Likely Democratic by forecasting outlets. Traders price in this baseline advantage while recognizing that primary consolidation, turnout shifts, or late developments could still influence the general election outcome in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$12,460 Обс.
$12,460 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
6%
$12,460 Обс.
$12,460 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,571 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$5,888 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, forms the core driver behind the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Multiple Democratic candidates, including former state Senator Richard Pan and others with established local networks, are contesting the June 2026 top-two primary in a seat previously held by Ami Bera, who shifted to the neighboring district. Independent candidate Kevin Kiley, the former Republican incumbent from the adjacent area, and limited Republican field presence face structural headwinds in a district rated D+8 by partisan voting indexes and assessed as Solid or Likely Democratic by forecasting outlets. Traders price in this baseline advantage while recognizing that primary consolidation, turnout shifts, or late developments could still influence the general election outcome in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,460Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, forms the core driver behind the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Multiple Democratic candidates, including former state Senator Richard Pan and others with established local networks, are contesting the June 2026 top-two primary in a seat previously held by Ami Bera, who shifted to the neighboring district. Independent candidate Kevin Kiley, the former Republican incumbent from the adjacent area, and limited Republican field presence face structural headwinds in a district rated D+8 by partisan voting indexes and assessed as Solid or Likely Democratic by forecasting outlets. Traders price in this baseline advantage while recognizing that primary consolidation, turnout shifts, or late developments could still influence the general election outcome in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$12,460Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's Democratic lean, reinforced by California's 2025 redistricting under Proposition 50, forms the core driver behind the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory. Multiple Democratic candidates, including former state Senator Richard Pan and others with established local networks, are contesting the June 2026 top-two primary in a seat previously held by Ami Bera, who shifted to the neighboring district. Independent candidate Kevin Kiley, the former Republican incumbent from the adjacent area, and limited Republican field presence face structural headwinds in a district rated D+8 by partisan voting indexes and assessed as Solid or Likely Democratic by forecasting outlets. Traders price in this baseline advantage while recognizing that primary consolidation, turnout shifts, or late developments could still influence the general election outcome in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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