The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,721Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$10,721Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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