The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,721Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$10,721Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання