The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
$10,721 Обс.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The 79% market-implied probability of no further US sovereign credit rating downgrade before 2027 is driven primarily by the stable outlooks assigned by Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch following Moody’s May 2025 one-notch cut to Aa1, which aligned all three major agencies at AA+/Aa1 levels. Persistent fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios above 120%—with the Congressional Budget Office projecting continued primary shortfalls near $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026—have already been incorporated into current ratings without triggering negative watches. Absent acute political shocks, debt-ceiling standoffs, or abrupt fiscal policy reversals since mid-2025, rating agencies have maintained stable outlooks, supporting trader consensus that another downgrade is unlikely over the next 18 months despite elevated interest costs and structural debt dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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