Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year headline rate—the highest since May 2023—driven primarily by a sharp energy price surge tied to geopolitical tensions, sets the backdrop for the May reading scheduled for June 10. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently project 4.18% for May headline CPI, reflecting persistent gasoline and fuel cost pressures alongside modest core inflation at 2.8%. With Polymarket-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 46% for 4.2% and 40% for 4.3%, trader consensus highlights uncertainty around the exact monthly energy contribution and shelter components, though the distribution leaves limited room for outcomes below 4.1% or above 4.4%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.2% 46%
4.3% 40%
4.1% 8.4%
≥4.4% 8%
$360,680 Обс.
$360,680 Обс.
≤3.3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
8%
4.2%
46%
4.3%
40%
≥4.4%
8%
4.2% 46%
4.3% 40%
4.1% 8.4%
≥4.4% 8%
$360,680 Обс.
$360,680 Обс.
≤3.3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
8%
4.2%
46%
4.3%
40%
≥4.4%
8%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ринок відкрито: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year headline rate—the highest since May 2023—driven primarily by a sharp energy price surge tied to geopolitical tensions, sets the backdrop for the May reading scheduled for June 10. Cleveland Fed nowcasts currently project 4.18% for May headline CPI, reflecting persistent gasoline and fuel cost pressures alongside modest core inflation at 2.8%. With Polymarket-implied probabilities tightly clustered at 46% for 4.2% and 40% for 4.3%, trader consensus highlights uncertainty around the exact monthly energy contribution and shelter components, though the distribution leaves limited room for outcomes below 4.1% or above 4.4%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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