Tight cattle supplies remain the dominant driver of ground beef prices in 2026, with the U.S. herd at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January and beef production forecasts revised lower to 25.5 billion pounds amid ongoing liquidation effects from prior droughts and elevated feed costs. Retail ground beef averaged near $6.70 per pound in March, up sharply year-over-year, while USDA projections point to continued 10%+ price gains for the year as fed and non-fed slaughter stays constrained. Strong consumer demand and increased lean-beef imports are providing partial offsets but have not eased the overall tightness, with meaningful herd rebuilding and production relief not expected until 2028.