Tight cattle supplies continue to anchor elevated ground beef prices, with the U.S. herd at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026 and beef cow numbers down 1% year-over-year. Persistent drought, high feed costs, and minimal heifer retention have driven multi-year herd liquidation, while USDA forecasts call for beef production to decline further and overall beef prices to rise 10.1% on average in 2026. Strong consumer demand has held retail ground beef near $6.70–$6.90 per pound through early 2026 despite these increases, with limited imports and robust export competition adding support. Traders are watching Q2–Q3 data releases and potential weather impacts on feed supplies for signals on whether prices breach key thresholds before year-end.