Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%–3.75% target range in March (11-1 vote) and April (elevated dissent amid policy debates). This positioning stems from persistent inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year on a 0.9% monthly surge, well above the 2% target, alongside solid economic growth and stable labor conditions delaying easing. The March dot plot median still eyes modest 2026 cuts to around 3.4% by year-end but with upward inflation revisions to 2.7% PCE. Realistic challenges include today's April CPI release showing sharp disinflation, weakening nonfarm payrolls, or a hawkish policy pivot reversal ahead of the June 17–18 meeting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 96.7%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 2.3%
Інше 1.1%
$1,044,630 Обс.
$1,044,630 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
2%
Інше
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 96.7%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 2.3%
Інше 1.1%
$1,044,630 Обс.
$1,044,630 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$51,657 Обс.
97%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$23,760 Обс.
2%
Інше
$223,871 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%–3.75% target range in March (11-1 vote) and April (elevated dissent amid policy debates). This positioning stems from persistent inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year on a 0.9% monthly surge, well above the 2% target, alongside solid economic growth and stable labor conditions delaying easing. The March dot plot median still eyes modest 2026 cuts to around 3.4% by year-end but with upward inflation revisions to 2.7% PCE. Realistic challenges include today's April CPI release showing sharp disinflation, weakening nonfarm payrolls, or a hawkish policy pivot reversal ahead of the June 17–18 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,044,630Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%–3.75% target range in March (11-1 vote) and April (elevated dissent amid policy debates). This positioning stems from persistent inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year on a 0.9% monthly surge, well above the 2% target, alongside solid economic growth and stable labor conditions delaying easing. The March dot plot median still eyes modest 2026 cuts to around 3.4% by year-end but with upward inflation revisions to 2.7% PCE. Realistic challenges include today's April CPI release showing sharp disinflation, weakening nonfarm payrolls, or a hawkish policy pivot reversal ahead of the June 17–18 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,044,630Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.7% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining steady federal funds rate decisions—Pause–Pause–Pause—across its March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed holds at the 3.50%–3.75% target range in March (11-1 vote) and April (elevated dissent amid policy debates). This positioning stems from persistent inflation, highlighted by March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year on a 0.9% monthly surge, well above the 2% target, alongside solid economic growth and stable labor conditions delaying easing. The March dot plot median still eyes modest 2026 cuts to around 3.4% by year-end but with upward inflation revisions to 2.7% PCE. Realistic challenges include today's April CPI release showing sharp disinflation, weakening nonfarm payrolls, or a hawkish policy pivot reversal ahead of the June 17–18 meeting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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