The dominant 97.8% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses stem from the FOMC’s decisions to hold the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% at both the March and April 2026 meetings amid April CPI inflation reaching 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since mid-2023—driven by energy price increases, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Traders have priced in the same outcome for the June 16-17 gathering given official communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, with futures markets assigning near-certain probability to no change. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or clear softening in payrolls could still introduce scope for a shift in the rate path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.9%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.4%
Інше <1%
$1,356,240 Обс.
$1,356,240 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
1%
Інше
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 97.9%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.4%
Інше <1%
$1,356,240 Обс.
$1,356,240 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$155,861 Обс.
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$157,730 Обс.
1%
Інше
$297,738 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant 97.8% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses stem from the FOMC’s decisions to hold the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% at both the March and April 2026 meetings amid April CPI inflation reaching 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since mid-2023—driven by energy price increases, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Traders have priced in the same outcome for the June 16-17 gathering given official communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, with futures markets assigning near-certain probability to no change. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or clear softening in payrolls could still introduce scope for a shift in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,356,240Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant 97.8% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses stem from the FOMC’s decisions to hold the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% at both the March and April 2026 meetings amid April CPI inflation reaching 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since mid-2023—driven by energy price increases, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Traders have priced in the same outcome for the June 16-17 gathering given official communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, with futures markets assigning near-certain probability to no change. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or clear softening in payrolls could still introduce scope for a shift in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,356,240Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The dominant 97.8% market-implied odds for three consecutive pauses stem from the FOMC’s decisions to hold the federal funds rate target steady at 3.50%-3.75% at both the March and April 2026 meetings amid April CPI inflation reaching 3.8% year-over-year—the highest reading since mid-2023—driven by energy price increases, alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Traders have priced in the same outcome for the June 16-17 gathering given official communications emphasizing data dependence and balanced risks, with futures markets assigning near-certain probability to no change. A significantly cooler May CPI release on June 10 or clear softening in payrolls could still introduce scope for a shift in the rate path.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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