Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an implied 91.5% probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a hotter March CPI inflation reading of 3.3% year-over-year, and a solid 178,000 nonfarm payrolls increase. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026, likely later, as labor markets remain tight and core inflation edges higher from 2.5%. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities near 99% for no April change. Weaker-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or softening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings could pressure odds toward cuts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 92%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 7%
Інше 1.7%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза <1%
$915,101 Обс.
$915,101 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
92%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
7%
Інше
2%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза
1%
Пауза–Зниження–Зниження
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 92%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 7%
Інше 1.7%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза <1%
$915,101 Обс.
$915,101 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$35,096 Обс.
92%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$16,526 Обс.
7%
Інше
$218,116 Обс.
2%
Пауза–Зниження–Пауза
$133,539 Обс.
1%
Пауза–Зниження–Зниження
$511,825 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an implied 91.5% probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a hotter March CPI inflation reading of 3.3% year-over-year, and a solid 178,000 nonfarm payrolls increase. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026, likely later, as labor markets remain tight and core inflation edges higher from 2.5%. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities near 99% for no April change. Weaker-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or softening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings could pressure odds toward cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$915,101Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an implied 91.5% probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a hotter March CPI inflation reading of 3.3% year-over-year, and a solid 178,000 nonfarm payrolls increase. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026, likely later, as labor markets remain tight and core inflation edges higher from 2.5%. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities near 99% for no April change. Weaker-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or softening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings could pressure odds toward cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$915,101Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Federal Reserve rate changes across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, with an implied 91.5% probability for Pause–Pause–Pause, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75% amid resilient economic growth, a hotter March CPI inflation reading of 3.3% year-over-year, and a solid 178,000 nonfarm payrolls increase. The updated dot plot projects just one 25 basis point cut by year-end 2026, likely later, as labor markets remain tight and core inflation edges higher from 2.5%. This positioning aligns with CME FedWatch probabilities near 99% for no April change. Weaker-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or softening jobs data ahead of the April 28-29 and June 16-17 meetings could pressure odds toward cuts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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