Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year due to energy price spikes, has anchored trader consensus for no federal funds rate changes at the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range, held steady since late 2025 amid a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, appears appropriately restrictive according to recent FOMC communications and dot plots. Futures markets currently assign roughly 98% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting’s Summary of Economic Projections remain key near-term catalysts that could alter positioning if data deviates materially from current trends.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 98.0%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.4%
Інше <1%
$1,356,688 Обс.
$1,356,688 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
1%
Інше
1%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 98.0%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження 1.4%
Інше <1%
$1,356,688 Обс.
$1,356,688 Обс.
Jun 17, 2026
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$155,877 Обс.
98%
Пауза–Пауза–Зниження
$157,730 Обс.
1%
Інше
$297,739 Обс.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year due to energy price spikes, has anchored trader consensus for no federal funds rate changes at the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range, held steady since late 2025 amid a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, appears appropriately restrictive according to recent FOMC communications and dot plots. Futures markets currently assign roughly 98% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting’s Summary of Economic Projections remain key near-term catalysts that could alter positioning if data deviates materially from current trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,356,688Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year due to energy price spikes, has anchored trader consensus for no federal funds rate changes at the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range, held steady since late 2025 amid a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, appears appropriately restrictive according to recent FOMC communications and dot plots. Futures markets currently assign roughly 98% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting’s Summary of Economic Projections remain key near-term catalysts that could alter positioning if data deviates materially from current trends.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,356,688Дата завершення
Jun 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year due to energy price spikes, has anchored trader consensus for no federal funds rate changes at the March, April, and June FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range, held steady since late 2025 amid a resilient labor market featuring 4.3% unemployment and steady payrolls, appears appropriately restrictive according to recent FOMC communications and dot plots. Futures markets currently assign roughly 98% implied probability to a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 meeting’s Summary of Economic Projections remain key near-term catalysts that could alter positioning if data deviates materially from current trends.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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