Recent inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 92.5 percent consensus on steady policy. Officials’ latest communications emphasize patience amid core PCE trending near the 2 percent target, while incoming data have shown no material deterioration in employment or consumer spending that would warrant immediate easing or tightening. Forward guidance continues to signal a data-dependent approach, leaving room for adjustment only if upcoming June employment or CPI figures diverge sharply from forecasts. Key swing risks include any surprise acceleration in wage growth or renewed supply-side pressures that could lift inflation expectations and prompt a hawkish shift.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоБез змін 93%
Підвищення на 25 б.п. 6.3%
Зниження на 25 б.п. 1.4%
Зниження на понад 50 б.п. <1%
$6,152,990 Обс.
$6,152,990 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Зниження на понад 50 б.п.
1%
Зниження на 25 б.п.
1%
Без змін
93%
Підвищення на 25 б.п.
6%
Підвищення на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без змін 93%
Підвищення на 25 б.п. 6.3%
Зниження на 25 б.п. 1.4%
Зниження на понад 50 б.п. <1%
$6,152,990 Обс.
$6,152,990 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Зниження на понад 50 б.п.
$648,883 Обс.
1%
Зниження на 25 б.п.
$539,199 Обс.
1%
Без змін
$754,337 Обс.
93%
Підвищення на 25 б.п.
$3,522,110 Обс.
6%
Підвищення на 50+ б.п.
$691,084 Обс.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 92.5 percent consensus on steady policy. Officials’ latest communications emphasize patience amid core PCE trending near the 2 percent target, while incoming data have shown no material deterioration in employment or consumer spending that would warrant immediate easing or tightening. Forward guidance continues to signal a data-dependent approach, leaving room for adjustment only if upcoming June employment or CPI figures diverge sharply from forecasts. Key swing risks include any surprise acceleration in wage growth or renewed supply-side pressures that could lift inflation expectations and prompt a hawkish shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,152,990Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 92.5 percent consensus on steady policy. Officials’ latest communications emphasize patience amid core PCE trending near the 2 percent target, while incoming data have shown no material deterioration in employment or consumer spending that would warrant immediate easing or tightening. Forward guidance continues to signal a data-dependent approach, leaving room for adjustment only if upcoming June employment or CPI figures diverge sharply from forecasts. Key swing risks include any surprise acceleration in wage growth or renewed supply-side pressures that could lift inflation expectations and prompt a hawkish shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$6,152,990Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations for no change at the July FOMC meeting, with market-implied odds reflecting 92.5 percent consensus on steady policy. Officials’ latest communications emphasize patience amid core PCE trending near the 2 percent target, while incoming data have shown no material deterioration in employment or consumer spending that would warrant immediate easing or tightening. Forward guidance continues to signal a data-dependent approach, leaving room for adjustment only if upcoming June employment or CPI figures diverge sharply from forecasts. Key swing risks include any surprise acceleration in wage growth or renewed supply-side pressures that could lift inflation expectations and prompt a hawkish shift.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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