Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$154,138 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
6%
September Meeting
12%
October Meeting
24%
$154,138 Обс.
June Meeting
$15,781 Обс.
1%
July Meeting
$1,768 Обс.
6%
September Meeting
$2,737 Обс.
12%
October Meeting
$2,545 Обс.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$154,138Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$154,138Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation data, including April core PCE rising to 3.8% amid Middle East oil supply disruptions, has shifted trader focus toward potential Federal Reserve policy firming after three consecutive holds at the 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. April FOMC minutes revealed multiple participants favoring removal of easing bias language, with market-implied odds of a hike before 2027 climbing to 43% on platforms like Kalshi and around 35% for 2026 on Polymarket. Stronger labor conditions and upward revisions to inflation forecasts have tempered earlier cut expectations, while Treasury yields and fed funds futures reflect this repricing. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which could further influence the rate path versus the March dot plot's median projection of limited easing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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