Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$144,997 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
7%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
14%
$144,997 Обс.
June Meeting
$12,492 Обс.
1%
July Meeting
$755 Обс.
7%
September Meeting
$49 Обс.
16%
October Meeting
$392 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$144,997Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$144,997Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range, held steady at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting amid divergent inflation and labor signals. March 2026 CPI inflation surged to 3.3% year-over-year on energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, while yesterday's April jobs report added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls—beating modest expectations—with unemployment steady at 4.3%, underscoring resilient job growth. Policymakers signal data dependence, with some openness to hikes if disinflation falters; key catalysts include April CPI on May 12 and the June FOMC, where Treasury yields and CME FedWatch paths will gauge shifting hike risks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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