The Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, despite a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores the current policy tension. Resurgent inflation pressures, including June CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential tightening. The next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will incorporate July and August CPI releases, Jackson Hole symposium commentary, and labor market data, with futures markets currently pricing roughly 60-75 percent odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase this year. Traders are weighing the hawkish hold against baseline forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan expecting no change through 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$2,010,971 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
September Meeting
49%
October Meeting
58%
$2,010,971 Обс.
September Meeting
$673,095 Обс.
49%
October Meeting
$377,876 Обс.
58%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, despite a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores the current policy tension. Resurgent inflation pressures, including June CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential tightening. The next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will incorporate July and August CPI releases, Jackson Hole symposium commentary, and labor market data, with futures markets currently pricing roughly 60-75 percent odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase this year. Traders are weighing the hawkish hold against baseline forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan expecting no change through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,010,971Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, despite a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores the current policy tension. Resurgent inflation pressures, including June CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential tightening. The next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will incorporate July and August CPI releases, Jackson Hole symposium commentary, and labor market data, with futures markets currently pricing roughly 60-75 percent odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase this year. Traders are weighing the hawkish hold against baseline forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan expecting no change through 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$2,010,971Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, despite a 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores the current policy tension. Resurgent inflation pressures, including June CPI at 3.5 percent year-over-year amid elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward potential tightening. The next FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will incorporate July and August CPI releases, Jackson Hole symposium commentary, and labor market data, with futures markets currently pricing roughly 60-75 percent odds of at least one 25-basis-point increase this year. Traders are weighing the hawkish hold against baseline forecasts from firms like J.P. Morgan expecting no change through 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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