Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—beating forecasts of 62,000—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring labor market resilience. The fed funds target range remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold steady amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal, with March CPI up 3.3% year-over-year. Hawkish comments from officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins warning of higher-for-longer rates, have tempered cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead: April CPI release on May 12 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where markets price near-certainty of no change.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$144,997 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
7%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
14%
$144,997 Обс.
June Meeting
$12,492 Обс.
1%
July Meeting
$755 Обс.
7%
September Meeting
$49 Обс.
16%
October Meeting
$392 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—beating forecasts of 62,000—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring labor market resilience. The fed funds target range remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold steady amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal, with March CPI up 3.3% year-over-year. Hawkish comments from officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins warning of higher-for-longer rates, have tempered cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead: April CPI release on May 12 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where markets price near-certainty of no change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$144,997Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—beating forecasts of 62,000—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring labor market resilience. The fed funds target range remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold steady amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal, with March CPI up 3.3% year-over-year. Hawkish comments from officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins warning of higher-for-longer rates, have tempered cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead: April CPI release on May 12 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where markets price near-certainty of no change.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$144,997Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, driven by yesterday's stronger-than-expected April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs—beating forecasts of 62,000—while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, underscoring labor market resilience. The fed funds target range remains at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold steady amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal, with March CPI up 3.3% year-over-year. Hawkish comments from officials, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins warning of higher-for-longer rates, have tempered cut expectations. Key catalysts ahead: April CPI release on May 12 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where markets price near-certainty of no change.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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