The June 17 FOMC decision and updated dot plot represent the dominant catalyst, with nine of 19 officials now projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end and the median end-2026 funds rate rising to 3.8% from 3.4%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by recent PCE revisions to 3.6% for 2026 amid Middle East conflict pressures, combined with solid job gains, has shifted the committee away from prior easing signals. Markets via CME FedWatch currently embed roughly a two-thirds probability of at least one hike by December, reflecting skin-in-the-game trader consensus. The next key data points arrive with the July 28–29 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$239,803 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
July Meeting
23%
September Meeting
42%
October Meeting
55%
$239,803 Обс.
July Meeting
$22,839 Обс.
23%
September Meeting
$23,035 Обс.
42%
October Meeting
$16,836 Обс.
55%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 17 FOMC decision and updated dot plot represent the dominant catalyst, with nine of 19 officials now projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end and the median end-2026 funds rate rising to 3.8% from 3.4%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by recent PCE revisions to 3.6% for 2026 amid Middle East conflict pressures, combined with solid job gains, has shifted the committee away from prior easing signals. Markets via CME FedWatch currently embed roughly a two-thirds probability of at least one hike by December, reflecting skin-in-the-game trader consensus. The next key data points arrive with the July 28–29 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$239,803Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The June 17 FOMC decision and updated dot plot represent the dominant catalyst, with nine of 19 officials now projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end and the median end-2026 funds rate rising to 3.8% from 3.4%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by recent PCE revisions to 3.6% for 2026 amid Middle East conflict pressures, combined with solid job gains, has shifted the committee away from prior easing signals. Markets via CME FedWatch currently embed roughly a two-thirds probability of at least one hike by December, reflecting skin-in-the-game trader consensus. The next key data points arrive with the July 28–29 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$239,803Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The June 17 FOMC decision and updated dot plot represent the dominant catalyst, with nine of 19 officials now projecting at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end and the median end-2026 funds rate rising to 3.8% from 3.4%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by recent PCE revisions to 3.6% for 2026 amid Middle East conflict pressures, combined with solid job gains, has shifted the committee away from prior easing signals. Markets via CME FedWatch currently embed roughly a two-thirds probability of at least one hike by December, reflecting skin-in-the-game trader consensus. The next key data points arrive with the July 28–29 FOMC meeting and intervening inflation and employment releases.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання