Recent FOMC communications and economic data have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 meeting. Inflation readings remain above the 2 percent target while the labor market shows low job gains but little change in the unemployment rate, supporting the Committee's dual-mandate balance. Minutes from the April meeting and subsequent market-implied paths indicate participants see elevated uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and anticipate limited near-term adjustments, with rate cuts viewed as more likely later in 2026 or 2027. This backdrop positions a hold as the dominant outcome in trader consensus, while modest probabilities attach to a 25 basis point increase if price pressures persist and negligible odds for easing given the current data trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$179,798 Обс.
$179,798 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.0%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$179,798 Обс.
$179,798 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$36,860 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$34,532 Обс.
3%
No change
$37,254 Обс.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,244 Обс.
20%
50+ bps increase
$33,909 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC communications and economic data have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 meeting. Inflation readings remain above the 2 percent target while the labor market shows low job gains but little change in the unemployment rate, supporting the Committee's dual-mandate balance. Minutes from the April meeting and subsequent market-implied paths indicate participants see elevated uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and anticipate limited near-term adjustments, with rate cuts viewed as more likely later in 2026 or 2027. This backdrop positions a hold as the dominant outcome in trader consensus, while modest probabilities attach to a 25 basis point increase if price pressures persist and negligible odds for easing given the current data trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$179,798Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent FOMC communications and economic data have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 meeting. Inflation readings remain above the 2 percent target while the labor market shows low job gains but little change in the unemployment rate, supporting the Committee's dual-mandate balance. Minutes from the April meeting and subsequent market-implied paths indicate participants see elevated uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and anticipate limited near-term adjustments, with rate cuts viewed as more likely later in 2026 or 2027. This backdrop positions a hold as the dominant outcome in trader consensus, while modest probabilities attach to a 25 basis point increase if price pressures persist and negligible odds for easing given the current data trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$179,798Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent FOMC communications and economic data have reinforced trader expectations for steady policy at the September 15-16 meeting. Inflation readings remain above the 2 percent target while the labor market shows low job gains but little change in the unemployment rate, supporting the Committee's dual-mandate balance. Minutes from the April meeting and subsequent market-implied paths indicate participants see elevated uncertainty from geopolitical tensions and anticipate limited near-term adjustments, with rate cuts viewed as more likely later in 2026 or 2027. This backdrop positions a hold as the dominant outcome in trader consensus, while modest probabilities attach to a 25 basis point increase if price pressures persist and negligible odds for easing given the current data trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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