Stronger-than-expected inflation readings driven by oil price pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reflect a data-dependent stance amid uncertainty over growth and price stability, with limited scope for easing before year-end and only modest room for tightening if inflation persists. The 76% implied probability of no change aligns with futures pricing that anticipates steady policy through much of 2026, while the 19.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual risks from energy costs and robust employment data. Low odds on cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation signals in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNo change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$180,982 Обс.
$180,982 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 20%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
50+ bps increase 1.5%
$180,982 Обс.
$180,982 Обс.
Sep 16, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$36,861 Обс.
1%
25 bps decrease
$35,714 Обс.
3%
No change
$37,267 Обс.
76%
25 bps increase
$37,244 Обс.
20%
50+ bps increase
$33,909 Обс.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Stronger-than-expected inflation readings driven by oil price pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reflect a data-dependent stance amid uncertainty over growth and price stability, with limited scope for easing before year-end and only modest room for tightening if inflation persists. The 76% implied probability of no change aligns with futures pricing that anticipates steady policy through much of 2026, while the 19.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual risks from energy costs and robust employment data. Low odds on cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation signals in the near term.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$180,982Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Stronger-than-expected inflation readings driven by oil price pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reflect a data-dependent stance amid uncertainty over growth and price stability, with limited scope for easing before year-end and only modest room for tightening if inflation persists. The 76% implied probability of no change aligns with futures pricing that anticipates steady policy through much of 2026, while the 19.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual risks from energy costs and robust employment data. Low odds on cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation signals in the near term.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Обсяг
$180,982Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Stronger-than-expected inflation readings driven by oil price pressures and a resilient labor market have anchored trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate target range at its September 16-17 FOMC meeting. Recent FOMC minutes and dot-plot projections reflect a data-dependent stance amid uncertainty over growth and price stability, with limited scope for easing before year-end and only modest room for tightening if inflation persists. The 76% implied probability of no change aligns with futures pricing that anticipates steady policy through much of 2026, while the 19.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike captures residual risks from energy costs and robust employment data. Low odds on cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation signals in the near term.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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