The April 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, amid persistent inflation pressures near 3.8 percent and a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3 percent, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy through the June and July meetings. Recent minutes and communications highlight upside risks to core inflation alongside limited softening in employment data, reinforcing the market-implied odds of 93 percent for a pause-pause-pause path. This consensus reflects aggregated capital at risk assessing that current conditions warrant caution ahead of the leadership transition. A sharper decline in upcoming CPI or PCE readings, or clearer signs of labor-market weakening, could still shift probabilities toward easing by July.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.4%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.8%
$49,336 Обс.
$49,336 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.4%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.8%
$49,336 Обс.
$49,336 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,858 Обс.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 Обс.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,664 Обс.
2%
Other
$1,595 Обс.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe April 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, amid persistent inflation pressures near 3.8 percent and a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3 percent, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy through the June and July meetings. Recent minutes and communications highlight upside risks to core inflation alongside limited softening in employment data, reinforcing the market-implied odds of 93 percent for a pause-pause-pause path. This consensus reflects aggregated capital at risk assessing that current conditions warrant caution ahead of the leadership transition. A sharper decline in upcoming CPI or PCE readings, or clearer signs of labor-market weakening, could still shift probabilities toward easing by July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$49,336Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe April 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, amid persistent inflation pressures near 3.8 percent and a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3 percent, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy through the June and July meetings. Recent minutes and communications highlight upside risks to core inflation alongside limited softening in employment data, reinforcing the market-implied odds of 93 percent for a pause-pause-pause path. This consensus reflects aggregated capital at risk assessing that current conditions warrant caution ahead of the leadership transition. A sharper decline in upcoming CPI or PCE readings, or clearer signs of labor-market weakening, could still shift probabilities toward easing by July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$49,336Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The April 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75 percent, amid persistent inflation pressures near 3.8 percent and a resilient labor market with unemployment around 4.3 percent, has anchored trader expectations for unchanged policy through the June and July meetings. Recent minutes and communications highlight upside risks to core inflation alongside limited softening in employment data, reinforcing the market-implied odds of 93 percent for a pause-pause-pause path. This consensus reflects aggregated capital at risk assessing that current conditions warrant caution ahead of the leadership transition. A sharper decline in upcoming CPI or PCE readings, or clearer signs of labor-market weakening, could still shift probabilities toward easing by July.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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