Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds rate steady across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and lowering unemployment to 4.3%. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and projected just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, with Chair Powell citing the economy's firm footing. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing over 94% odds of a pause. Pause-Pause-Cut at 11.5% captures sentiment for a potential July easing if data softens.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Other 9%
Cut–Pause–Cut 3.5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Other 9%
Cut–Pause–Cut 3.5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$993 Обс.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$727 Обс.
4%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$730 Обс.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$756 Обс.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,401 Обс.
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$944 Обс.
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$614 Обс.
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$781 Обс.
2%
Other
$906 Обс.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds rate steady across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and lowering unemployment to 4.3%. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and projected just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, with Chair Powell citing the economy's firm footing. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing over 94% odds of a pause. Pause-Pause-Cut at 11.5% captures sentiment for a potential July easing if data softens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,850Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds rate steady across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and lowering unemployment to 4.3%. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and projected just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, with Chair Powell citing the economy's firm footing. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing over 94% odds of a pause. Pause-Pause-Cut at 11.5% captures sentiment for a potential July easing if data softens.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$7,850Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 78.5% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining the fed funds rate steady across April, June, and July FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and resilient labor market conditions. March 2026 CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding forecasts and lowering unemployment to 4.3%. The March 17-18 FOMC held rates at 3.5%-3.75% and projected just one 25-basis-point cut for all of 2026, likely later in the year, with Chair Powell citing the economy's firm footing. Upcoming April 28-29 meeting looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing over 94% odds of a pause. Pause-Pause-Cut at 11.5% captures sentiment for a potential July easing if data softens.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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