The 92% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April–July FOMC meetings reflects trader consensus that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%–3.75% target amid persistent inflation pressures. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. With the June 16–17 meeting and subsequent July 28–29 gathering approaching, recent FOMC communications and futures pricing indicate a clear preference for maintaining the current stance until inflation shows sustained moderation. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper labor-market deterioration could still prompt a policy shift before July.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPause–Pause–Pause 92%
Other 5.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$54,334 Обс.
$54,334 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
92%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 92%
Other 5.2%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.2%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$54,334 Обс.
$54,334 Обс.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,885 Обс.
92%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,918 Обс.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,632 Обс.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,937 Обс.
1%
Other
$1,977 Обс.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe 92% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April–July FOMC meetings reflects trader consensus that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%–3.75% target amid persistent inflation pressures. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. With the June 16–17 meeting and subsequent July 28–29 gathering approaching, recent FOMC communications and futures pricing indicate a clear preference for maintaining the current stance until inflation shows sustained moderation. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper labor-market deterioration could still prompt a policy shift before July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$54,334Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe 92% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April–July FOMC meetings reflects trader consensus that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%–3.75% target amid persistent inflation pressures. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. With the June 16–17 meeting and subsequent July 28–29 gathering approaching, recent FOMC communications and futures pricing indicate a clear preference for maintaining the current stance until inflation shows sustained moderation. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper labor-market deterioration could still prompt a policy shift before July.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$54,334Дата завершення
Jul 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 92% market-implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for the April–July FOMC meetings reflects trader consensus that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%–3.75% target amid persistent inflation pressures. May 2026 CPI rose 4.2% year-over-year—its highest since 2023—driven by a 23.5% surge in energy prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. With the June 16–17 meeting and subsequent July 28–29 gathering approaching, recent FOMC communications and futures pricing indicate a clear preference for maintaining the current stance until inflation shows sustained moderation. A rapid de-escalation in energy markets or sharper labor-market deterioration could still prompt a policy shift before July.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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