Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest in three years, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve pauses at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75%, this inflation trajectory and firm labor conditions have driven the 76% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes on Polymarket. Markets currently assign minimal odds to near-term cuts, reflecting the shift away from any easing bias ahead of potential policy adjustments under new leadership. Upcoming June employment and inflation releases remain key catalysts that could sustain or alter these probabilities before the September decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
25%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
9%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$286 Обс.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$233 Обс.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 Обс.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 Обс.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 Обс.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 Обс.
25%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Обс.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Обс.
9%
Other
$169 Обс.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest in three years, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve pauses at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75%, this inflation trajectory and firm labor conditions have driven the 76% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes on Polymarket. Markets currently assign minimal odds to near-term cuts, reflecting the shift away from any easing bias ahead of potential policy adjustments under new leadership. Upcoming June employment and inflation releases remain key catalysts that could sustain or alter these probabilities before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,382Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest in three years, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve pauses at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75%, this inflation trajectory and firm labor conditions have driven the 76% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes on Polymarket. Markets currently assign minimal odds to near-term cuts, reflecting the shift away from any easing bias ahead of potential policy adjustments under new leadership. Upcoming June employment and inflation releases remain key catalysts that could sustain or alter these probabilities before the September decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$2,382Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing a 4.2% year-over-year increase—the highest in three years, fueled by energy price surges—has reinforced trader expectations for Federal Reserve pauses at the June 16-17, July 28-29, and September 15-16 FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate target at 3.50-3.75%, this inflation trajectory and firm labor conditions have driven the 76% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes on Polymarket. Markets currently assign minimal odds to near-term cuts, reflecting the shift away from any easing bias ahead of potential policy adjustments under new leadership. Upcoming June employment and inflation releases remain key catalysts that could sustain or alter these probabilities before the September decision.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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