Trader sentiment strongly favors a Pause-Pause-Pause path at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 2026 CPI report that showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East developments. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and persistent inflation risks above the 2% target, has reinforced a data-dependent stance with no near-term cuts priced in. April unemployment at 4.3% and resilient labor conditions further support the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive, though the June dot plot and upcoming May CPI release represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if inflation readings moderate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Cut–Pause–Cut 6.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 76%
Other 12%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
Cut–Pause–Cut 6.9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 Обс.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 Обс.
7%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 Обс.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 Обс.
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 Обс.
76%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 Обс.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 Обс.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 Обс.
3%
Other
$122 Обс.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment strongly favors a Pause-Pause-Pause path at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 2026 CPI report that showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East developments. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and persistent inflation risks above the 2% target, has reinforced a data-dependent stance with no near-term cuts priced in. April unemployment at 4.3% and resilient labor conditions further support the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive, though the June dot plot and upcoming May CPI release represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if inflation readings moderate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,450Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader sentiment strongly favors a Pause-Pause-Pause path at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 2026 CPI report that showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East developments. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and persistent inflation risks above the 2% target, has reinforced a data-dependent stance with no near-term cuts priced in. April unemployment at 4.3% and resilient labor conditions further support the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive, though the June dot plot and upcoming May CPI release represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if inflation readings moderate.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$1,450Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment strongly favors a Pause-Pause-Pause path at the June, July, and September FOMC meetings, reflecting the April 2026 CPI report that showed a 3.8% year-over-year increase—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price surges amid Middle East developments. The Federal Reserve's April 29 decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, citing solid economic expansion and persistent inflation risks above the 2% target, has reinforced a data-dependent stance with no near-term cuts priced in. April unemployment at 4.3% and resilient labor conditions further support the view that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive, though the June dot plot and upcoming May CPI release represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if inflation readings moderate.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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