Traders are pricing a near-certain hold at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting amid April CPI inflation accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by a sharp energy-price surge tied to geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve’s current 3.50-3.75% target range remains in place following the April 29 decision, with futures and prediction markets assigning less than 3% odds of a 25-basis-point cut in June. Core CPI also edged higher to 2.8%, reinforcing concerns that the oil shock has not yet peaked. The May CPI release on June 10 will provide the final data point before the meeting, while labor-market resilience and above-target inflation continue to anchor expectations for a delayed or limited easing path through the remainder of 2026.