Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" shares for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 58.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April despite elevated geopolitical risks. None of the specified conditions—such as Trump leaving the presidency, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—have occurred since market launch in January. Ongoing tensions, including reported ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and Trump administration statements on Iran operations winding down, have fueled related markets but fallen short of resolution triggers. With eight months until December 31 cutoff, potential escalations in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Taiwan Strait maneuvers, or leadership shifts could tip probabilities amid historical patterns favoring geopolitical stasis over dramatic ruptures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ใช่
$505,871 ปริมาณ
$505,871 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$505,871 ปริมาณ
$505,871 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" shares for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 58.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April despite elevated geopolitical risks. None of the specified conditions—such as Trump leaving the presidency, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—have occurred since market launch in January. Ongoing tensions, including reported ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and Trump administration statements on Iran operations winding down, have fueled related markets but fallen short of resolution triggers. With eight months until December 31 cutoff, potential escalations in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Taiwan Strait maneuvers, or leadership shifts could tip probabilities amid historical patterns favoring geopolitical stasis over dramatic ruptures.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$505,871วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" shares for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 58.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April despite elevated geopolitical risks. None of the specified conditions—such as Trump leaving the presidency, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—have occurred since market launch in January. Ongoing tensions, including reported ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and Trump administration statements on Iran operations winding down, have fueled related markets but fallen short of resolution triggers. With eight months until December 31 cutoff, potential escalations in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Taiwan Strait maneuvers, or leadership shifts could tip probabilities amid historical patterns favoring geopolitical stasis over dramatic ruptures.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$505,871วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" shares for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" at 58.5%, reflecting the absence of any triggering events through mid-April despite elevated geopolitical risks. None of the specified conditions—such as Trump leaving the presidency, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's ouster, a U.S. invasion of Iran, or the Iranian regime falling—have occurred since market launch in January. Ongoing tensions, including reported ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, Israeli military actions in Lebanon, and Trump administration statements on Iran operations winding down, have fueled related markets but fallen short of resolution triggers. With eight months until December 31 cutoff, potential escalations in U.S.-Iran diplomacy, Taiwan Strait maneuvers, or leadership shifts could tip probabilities amid historical patterns favoring geopolitical stasis over dramatic ruptures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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