Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the predefined resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September, including leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. ground operations against Iran or regime collapse there, Russian strikes on a NATO member, extreme Bitcoin price swings, or major natural disasters. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have produced drone strikes and sanctions measures but stopped short of the listed thresholds, while scheduled elections in Russia, Germany, and elsewhere have not altered executive control or produced supermajorities. With roughly three months remaining, the market consensus reflects the absence of near-term catalysts capable of meeting those specific criteria before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ใช่
82% โอกาส
$792,761 ปริมาณ
$792,761 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
82% โอกาส
$792,761 ปริมาณ
$792,761 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign an 82% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the predefined resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September, including leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. ground operations against Iran or regime collapse there, Russian strikes on a NATO member, extreme Bitcoin price swings, or major natural disasters. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have produced drone strikes and sanctions measures but stopped short of the listed thresholds, while scheduled elections in Russia, Germany, and elsewhere have not altered executive control or produced supermajorities. With roughly three months remaining, the market consensus reflects the absence of near-term catalysts capable of meeting those specific criteria before year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$792,761วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTraders assign an 82% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the predefined resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September, including leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. ground operations against Iran or regime collapse there, Russian strikes on a NATO member, extreme Bitcoin price swings, or major natural disasters. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have produced drone strikes and sanctions measures but stopped short of the listed thresholds, while scheduled elections in Russia, Germany, and elsewhere have not altered executive control or produced supermajorities. With roughly three months remaining, the market consensus reflects the absence of near-term catalysts capable of meeting those specific criteria before year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$792,761วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 82% implied probability to "Yes" on Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 because none of the predefined resolution triggers have materialized through mid-September, including leadership changes for President Trump or Xi Jinping, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, U.S. ground operations against Iran or regime collapse there, Russian strikes on a NATO member, extreme Bitcoin price swings, or major natural disasters. Ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have produced drone strikes and sanctions measures but stopped short of the listed thresholds, while scheduled elections in Russia, Germany, and elsewhere have not altered executive control or produced supermajorities. With roughly three months remaining, the market consensus reflects the absence of near-term catalysts capable of meeting those specific criteria before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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