Trader consensus prices "Yes" shares at 71.5¢ for no major disruptions occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events in the first four months of the year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. President Trump remains in office with no resignation, impeachment, or removal; Xi Jinping holds power in China amid stalled Taiwan rhetoric; the Iranian regime endures U.S. threats and new Cuba sanctions without invasion or collapse; Russia-Ukraine fighting persists short of NATO incursion; and Bitcoin trades between $10k-$1M. Recent hantavirus cases on a cruise ship and May Day protests generated headlines but failed to meet criteria like regime falls or supermajorities. With November midterms approaching, traders weigh low base rates for earthquakes (≥9.0), VEI≥6 eruptions, or meteor strikes against the market's exhaustive "black swan" list.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ไม่มีอะไรเกิดขึ้นเลย: 2026
ใช่
$554,416 ปริมาณ
$554,416 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
ใช่
$554,416 ปริมาณ
$554,416 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" shares at 71.5¢ for no major disruptions occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events in the first four months of the year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. President Trump remains in office with no resignation, impeachment, or removal; Xi Jinping holds power in China amid stalled Taiwan rhetoric; the Iranian regime endures U.S. threats and new Cuba sanctions without invasion or collapse; Russia-Ukraine fighting persists short of NATO incursion; and Bitcoin trades between $10k-$1M. Recent hantavirus cases on a cruise ship and May Day protests generated headlines but failed to meet criteria like regime falls or supermajorities. With November midterms approaching, traders weigh low base rates for earthquakes (≥9.0), VEI≥6 eruptions, or meteor strikes against the market's exhaustive "black swan" list.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$554,416วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" shares at 71.5¢ for no major disruptions occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events in the first four months of the year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. President Trump remains in office with no resignation, impeachment, or removal; Xi Jinping holds power in China amid stalled Taiwan rhetoric; the Iranian regime endures U.S. threats and new Cuba sanctions without invasion or collapse; Russia-Ukraine fighting persists short of NATO incursion; and Bitcoin trades between $10k-$1M. Recent hantavirus cases on a cruise ship and May Day protests generated headlines but failed to meet criteria like regime falls or supermajorities. With November midterms approaching, traders weigh low base rates for earthquakes (≥9.0), VEI≥6 eruptions, or meteor strikes against the market's exhaustive "black swan" list.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$554,416วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" shares at 71.5¢ for no major disruptions occurring through December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events in the first four months of the year despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. President Trump remains in office with no resignation, impeachment, or removal; Xi Jinping holds power in China amid stalled Taiwan rhetoric; the Iranian regime endures U.S. threats and new Cuba sanctions without invasion or collapse; Russia-Ukraine fighting persists short of NATO incursion; and Bitcoin trades between $10k-$1M. Recent hantavirus cases on a cruise ship and May Day protests generated headlines but failed to meet criteria like regime falls or supermajorities. With November midterms approaching, traders weigh low base rates for earthquakes (≥9.0), VEI≥6 eruptions, or meteor strikes against the market's exhaustive "black swan" list.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย