Putin’s consolidated control over Russia’s security services, legislature, and media continues to anchor low trader-implied probabilities of an early exit, with constitutional eligibility extending to 2036 and the next presidential vote scheduled for 2030. Recent U.S.-Russian diplomatic contacts, including envoys’ September meetings in Moscow and a Trump-Putin call, have focused on Ukraine negotiations without generating visible internal pressure on the president. Upcoming State Duma elections on September 18–20 test United Russia’s support amid economic strains from the war, yet Kremlin preparations emphasize managed outcomes rather than leadership change. Internal FSB personnel shifts have surfaced but remain contained within the existing elite structure, offering no confirmed signals of succession maneuvering that would alter near-term odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วDozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies petition for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin's resignation, signaling internal political dissent. This event briefly raised market speculation about Putin's potential departure.
Kremlin expects trilateral negotiations on Ukraine to resume soon, signaling diplomatic engagement
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated openness to renewed talks involving Russia, the US, and Ukraine, suggesting ongoing political maneuvering that influenced market views on Putin's political future.
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