The U.S. has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations and subcritical experiments to certify the nuclear arsenal. Trader consensus prices a low 13% probability of resumption by December 31, 2026—the market leader—reflecting significant political barriers from Nevada's congressional delegation, including Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit opposing any Trump administration plans amid concerns over Russia and China activities. No tests are scheduled, and bills like Representative Dina Titus's RESTRAIN Act seek to codify the ban legislatively, underscoring institutional inertia and nonproliferation risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
การทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
$639,462 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
30 มิถุนายน 2026
1%
30 กันยายน 2026
8%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
13%
$639,462 ปริมาณ
30 มิถุนายน 2026
$23,204 ปริมาณ
1%
30 กันยายน 2026
$2,149 ปริมาณ
8%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
$3,890 ปริมาณ
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations and subcritical experiments to certify the nuclear arsenal. Trader consensus prices a low 13% probability of resumption by December 31, 2026—the market leader—reflecting significant political barriers from Nevada's congressional delegation, including Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit opposing any Trump administration plans amid concerns over Russia and China activities. No tests are scheduled, and bills like Representative Dina Titus's RESTRAIN Act seek to codify the ban legislatively, underscoring institutional inertia and nonproliferation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$639,462วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations and subcritical experiments to certify the nuclear arsenal. Trader consensus prices a low 13% probability of resumption by December 31, 2026—the market leader—reflecting significant political barriers from Nevada's congressional delegation, including Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit opposing any Trump administration plans amid concerns over Russia and China activities. No tests are scheduled, and bills like Representative Dina Titus's RESTRAIN Act seek to codify the ban legislatively, underscoring institutional inertia and nonproliferation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$639,462วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing since its last underground detonation in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations and subcritical experiments to certify the nuclear arsenal. Trader consensus prices a low 13% probability of resumption by December 31, 2026—the market leader—reflecting significant political barriers from Nevada's congressional delegation, including Senator Jacky Rosen's April 13 site visit opposing any Trump administration plans amid concerns over Russia and China activities. No tests are scheduled, and bills like Representative Dina Titus's RESTRAIN Act seek to codify the ban legislatively, underscoring institutional inertia and nonproliferation risks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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