President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear explosive testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield foreign detonations, remains the central driver of market positioning. No such test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, with the administration instead advancing non-nuclear chemical explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site in September 2026 to refine detection of decoupled blasts. Ongoing diplomatic discussions with Moscow and Beijing on denuclearization, combined with congressional oversight of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s stockpile stewardship program and extended preparation timelines for any explosive event, continue to shape trader assessments of near-term outcomes. Scheduled milestones through late 2026 include further NNSA activities and potential legislative reviews.