US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 DNI Annual Threat Assessment, confirm Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program following US-Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment and weaponization facilities in June 2025 and subsequent operations, severely degrading capabilities and stockpiles. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 note Iran's pre-strike 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but highlight restricted access to damaged sites and no evidence of diversion to military use, with ongoing monitoring of unaffected facilities. Diplomatic signals, including UN nuclear chief calls for verification amid potential US-Iran talks to end hostilities, reinforce trader consensus that barriers to a nuclear test before 2027—such as rebuilding timelines exceeding 2-3 years and Khamenei's fatwa against weapons—remain insurmountable absent a drastic policy reversal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$171,031 ปริมาณ
$171,031 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$171,031 ปริมาณ
$171,031 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 DNI Annual Threat Assessment, confirm Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program following US-Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment and weaponization facilities in June 2025 and subsequent operations, severely degrading capabilities and stockpiles. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 note Iran's pre-strike 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but highlight restricted access to damaged sites and no evidence of diversion to military use, with ongoing monitoring of unaffected facilities. Diplomatic signals, including UN nuclear chief calls for verification amid potential US-Iran talks to end hostilities, reinforce trader consensus that barriers to a nuclear test before 2027—such as rebuilding timelines exceeding 2-3 years and Khamenei's fatwa against weapons—remain insurmountable absent a drastic policy reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$171,031วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 DNI Annual Threat Assessment, confirm Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program following US-Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment and weaponization facilities in June 2025 and subsequent operations, severely degrading capabilities and stockpiles. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 note Iran's pre-strike 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but highlight restricted access to damaged sites and no evidence of diversion to military use, with ongoing monitoring of unaffected facilities. Diplomatic signals, including UN nuclear chief calls for verification amid potential US-Iran talks to end hostilities, reinforce trader consensus that barriers to a nuclear test before 2027—such as rebuilding timelines exceeding 2-3 years and Khamenei's fatwa against weapons—remain insurmountable absent a drastic policy reversal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$171,031วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 DNI Annual Threat Assessment, confirm Iran has not restarted its nuclear weapons program following US-Israeli airstrikes that destroyed key enrichment and weaponization facilities in June 2025 and subsequent operations, severely degrading capabilities and stockpiles. IAEA reports from February and March 2026 note Iran's pre-strike 440kg of 60% enriched uranium but highlight restricted access to damaged sites and no evidence of diversion to military use, with ongoing monitoring of unaffected facilities. Diplomatic signals, including UN nuclear chief calls for verification amid potential US-Iran talks to end hostilities, reinforce trader consensus that barriers to a nuclear test before 2027—such as rebuilding timelines exceeding 2-3 years and Khamenei's fatwa against weapons—remain insurmountable absent a drastic policy reversal.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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