Iran’s nuclear program suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible. Ongoing reconstruction at facilities like Taleghan 2 and construction at Pickaxe Mountain reflect efforts to harden infrastructure rather than active weaponization, with the IAEA reporting no verified enrichment or test preparations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding reinforced a status-quo commitment against new enrichment, though verification remains limited. Traders assign 95% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these constraints, combined with international monitoring and deterrence, make rapid breakout to a testable device improbable in the remaining months. Late shifts could occur if stockpiles are clandestinely recovered and further enriched without detection.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% โอกาส
$262,022 ปริมาณ
$262,022 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
$262,022 ปริมาณ
$262,022 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear program suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible. Ongoing reconstruction at facilities like Taleghan 2 and construction at Pickaxe Mountain reflect efforts to harden infrastructure rather than active weaponization, with the IAEA reporting no verified enrichment or test preparations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding reinforced a status-quo commitment against new enrichment, though verification remains limited. Traders assign 95% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these constraints, combined with international monitoring and deterrence, make rapid breakout to a testable device improbable in the remaining months. Late shifts could occur if stockpiles are clandestinely recovered and further enriched without detection.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$262,022วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear program suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible. Ongoing reconstruction at facilities like Taleghan 2 and construction at Pickaxe Mountain reflect efforts to harden infrastructure rather than active weaponization, with the IAEA reporting no verified enrichment or test preparations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding reinforced a status-quo commitment against new enrichment, though verification remains limited. Traders assign 95% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these constraints, combined with international monitoring and deterrence, make rapid breakout to a testable device improbable in the remaining months. Late shifts could occur if stockpiles are clandestinely recovered and further enriched without detection.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$262,022วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear program suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and much of its 60% enriched uranium stockpile buried or inaccessible. Ongoing reconstruction at facilities like Taleghan 2 and construction at Pickaxe Mountain reflect efforts to harden infrastructure rather than active weaponization, with the IAEA reporting no verified enrichment or test preparations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding reinforced a status-quo commitment against new enrichment, though verification remains limited. Traders assign 95% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these constraints, combined with international monitoring and deterrence, make rapid breakout to a testable device improbable in the remaining months. Late shifts could occur if stockpiles are clandestinely recovered and further enriched without detection.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย