Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February. Since his appointment he has maintained near-total public absence, citing reported injuries from the strikes and security threats, and he did not appear at the July 2026 funeral ceremonies for the former leader. This prolonged invisibility has generated widespread speculation about his location, with some regional reporting claiming he is no longer inside Iran and may be in Russia. Traders are weighing these factors against the institutional pressures on the supreme leader to remain in Tehran amid ongoing regional tensions, internal leadership divisions, and the need to project continuity for the Islamic Republic. Upcoming diplomatic or security developments could further shift assessments of any potential departure.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$102,160 ปริมาณ
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$102,160 ปริมาณ
August 31
$60,258 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February. Since his appointment he has maintained near-total public absence, citing reported injuries from the strikes and security threats, and he did not appear at the July 2026 funeral ceremonies for the former leader. This prolonged invisibility has generated widespread speculation about his location, with some regional reporting claiming he is no longer inside Iran and may be in Russia. Traders are weighing these factors against the institutional pressures on the supreme leader to remain in Tehran amid ongoing regional tensions, internal leadership divisions, and the need to project continuity for the Islamic Republic. Upcoming diplomatic or security developments could further shift assessments of any potential departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$102,160วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February. Since his appointment he has maintained near-total public absence, citing reported injuries from the strikes and security threats, and he did not appear at the July 2026 funeral ceremonies for the former leader. This prolonged invisibility has generated widespread speculation about his location, with some regional reporting claiming he is no longer inside Iran and may be in Russia. Traders are weighing these factors against the institutional pressures on the supreme leader to remain in Tehran amid ongoing regional tensions, internal leadership divisions, and the need to project continuity for the Islamic Republic. Upcoming diplomatic or security developments could further shift assessments of any potential departure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$102,160วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in late February. Since his appointment he has maintained near-total public absence, citing reported injuries from the strikes and security threats, and he did not appear at the July 2026 funeral ceremonies for the former leader. This prolonged invisibility has generated widespread speculation about his location, with some regional reporting claiming he is no longer inside Iran and may be in Russia. Traders are weighing these factors against the institutional pressures on the supreme leader to remain in Tehran amid ongoing regional tensions, internal leadership divisions, and the need to project continuity for the Islamic Republic. Upcoming diplomatic or security developments could further shift assessments of any potential departure.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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