Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-May. Official USGS data show no earthquakes reaching M8.5 or higher globally, with the strongest recent tremor an M7.5 near Tonga that produced minimal shaking impact. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records no VEI-6 or greater eruptions, events that occur less than once per decade on average. NOAA and National Hurricane Center monitoring confirm zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the Atlantic season has not yet begun. Colorado State University’s seasonal outlook points to below-normal tropical cyclone activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming June forecast updates and ongoing seismic surveillance could shift probabilities if a rare high-threshold event materializes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,667 ปริมาณ
$218,667 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$218,667 ปริมาณ
$218,667 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-May. Official USGS data show no earthquakes reaching M8.5 or higher globally, with the strongest recent tremor an M7.5 near Tonga that produced minimal shaking impact. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records no VEI-6 or greater eruptions, events that occur less than once per decade on average. NOAA and National Hurricane Center monitoring confirm zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the Atlantic season has not yet begun. Colorado State University’s seasonal outlook points to below-normal tropical cyclone activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming June forecast updates and ongoing seismic surveillance could shift probabilities if a rare high-threshold event materializes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$218,667วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-May. Official USGS data show no earthquakes reaching M8.5 or higher globally, with the strongest recent tremor an M7.5 near Tonga that produced minimal shaking impact. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records no VEI-6 or greater eruptions, events that occur less than once per decade on average. NOAA and National Hurricane Center monitoring confirm zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the Atlantic season has not yet begun. Colorado State University’s seasonal outlook points to below-normal tropical cyclone activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming June forecast updates and ongoing seismic surveillance could shift probabilities if a rare high-threshold event materializes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$218,667วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment favoring "No" at 74% for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the continued absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-May. Official USGS data show no earthquakes reaching M8.5 or higher globally, with the strongest recent tremor an M7.5 near Tonga that produced minimal shaking impact. The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records no VEI-6 or greater eruptions, events that occur less than once per decade on average. NOAA and National Hurricane Center monitoring confirm zero Category 5 landfalls on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while the Atlantic season has not yet begun. Colorado State University’s seasonal outlook points to below-normal tropical cyclone activity amid transitioning La Niña conditions. Upcoming June forecast updates and ongoing seismic surveillance could shift probabilities if a rare high-threshold event materializes.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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