Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10 kiloton-plus meteor strike, VEI 6 or higher volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data. Through April 21, no such events have occurred—USGS records the year's largest as M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both well below threshold despite triggering aftershocks. Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions shifting from La Niña, with models forecasting average activity unlikely to produce US Cat 5 landfall. No active VEI 6 threats or confirmed major meteor impacts reported by monitoring agencies; resolution hinges on remainder of year, with next NOAA outlooks due soon.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$209,722 ปริมาณ
$209,722 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$209,722 ปริมาณ
$209,722 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10 kiloton-plus meteor strike, VEI 6 or higher volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data. Through April 21, no such events have occurred—USGS records the year's largest as M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both well below threshold despite triggering aftershocks. Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions shifting from La Niña, with models forecasting average activity unlikely to produce US Cat 5 landfall. No active VEI 6 threats or confirmed major meteor impacts reported by monitoring agencies; resolution hinges on remainder of year, with next NOAA outlooks due soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$209,722วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10 kiloton-plus meteor strike, VEI 6 or higher volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data. Through April 21, no such events have occurred—USGS records the year's largest as M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both well below threshold despite triggering aftershocks. Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions shifting from La Niña, with models forecasting average activity unlikely to produce US Cat 5 landfall. No active VEI 6 threats or confirmed major meteor impacts reported by monitoring agencies; resolution hinges on remainder of year, with next NOAA outlooks due soon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$209,722วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 71% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of the market's strict criteria: a Category 5 hurricane landfall anywhere in the US per NOAA Saffir-Simpson scale, a 10 kiloton-plus meteor strike, VEI 6 or higher volcanic eruption, or magnitude 8.5+ earthquake per USGS data. Through April 21, no such events have occurred—USGS records the year's largest as M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 near Indonesia on April 1, both well below threshold despite triggering aftershocks. Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 amid neutral ENSO conditions shifting from La Niña, with models forecasting average activity unlikely to produce US Cat 5 landfall. No active VEI 6 threats or confirmed major meteor impacts reported by monitoring agencies; resolution hinges on remainder of year, with next NOAA outlooks due soon.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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