Trader consensus on a low likelihood of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-year, with USGS seismic monitoring, NOAA hurricane tracking, and Smithsonian volcano data showing activity within historical norms rather than outliers. No VEI 6+ eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or Category 5 U.S. landfalls have materialized, while smaller tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires remain below resolution thresholds. Model runs and early-season climatology continue to support typical frequency patterns, leaving ample time for potential shifts but currently anchoring the market-implied odds near 73.5% for no occurrence. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing USGS aftershock assessments represent the next key data points that could alter positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$222,056 ปริมาณ
$222,056 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$222,056 ปริมาณ
$222,056 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on a low likelihood of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-year, with USGS seismic monitoring, NOAA hurricane tracking, and Smithsonian volcano data showing activity within historical norms rather than outliers. No VEI 6+ eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or Category 5 U.S. landfalls have materialized, while smaller tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires remain below resolution thresholds. Model runs and early-season climatology continue to support typical frequency patterns, leaving ample time for potential shifts but currently anchoring the market-implied odds near 73.5% for no occurrence. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing USGS aftershock assessments represent the next key data points that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$222,056วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on a low likelihood of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-year, with USGS seismic monitoring, NOAA hurricane tracking, and Smithsonian volcano data showing activity within historical norms rather than outliers. No VEI 6+ eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or Category 5 U.S. landfalls have materialized, while smaller tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires remain below resolution thresholds. Model runs and early-season climatology continue to support typical frequency patterns, leaving ample time for potential shifts but currently anchoring the market-implied odds near 73.5% for no occurrence. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing USGS aftershock assessments represent the next key data points that could alter positioning.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$222,056วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a low likelihood of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-year, with USGS seismic monitoring, NOAA hurricane tracking, and Smithsonian volcano data showing activity within historical norms rather than outliers. No VEI 6+ eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or Category 5 U.S. landfalls have materialized, while smaller tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires remain below resolution thresholds. Model runs and early-season climatology continue to support typical frequency patterns, leaving ample time for potential shifts but currently anchoring the market-implied odds near 73.5% for no occurrence. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing USGS aftershock assessments represent the next key data points that could alter positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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