As of mid-2026, the 74% market-implied probability for No on a natural disaster reflects the absence of any event meeting the market's specific resolution thresholds so far this year, despite ongoing seasonal activity. Official monitoring from agencies like NOAA and USGS shows typical patterns of wildfires, flooding, and smaller seismic events, yet none have escalated to the defined criteria such as extreme magnitude or widespread impact thresholds. Historical baselines indicate natural disasters occur annually, but current atmospheric and tectonic conditions have not produced the outlier developments traders would need to shift consensus toward Yes before year-end. Upcoming seasonal peaks in hurricane and monsoon activity represent key monitoring points that could alter odds if forecasts intensify.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
$221,654 ปริมาณ
$221,654 ปริมาณ
$221,654 ปริมาณ
$221,654 ปริมาณ
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...As of mid-2026, the 74% market-implied probability for No on a natural disaster reflects the absence of any event meeting the market's specific resolution thresholds so far this year, despite ongoing seasonal activity. Official monitoring from agencies like NOAA and USGS shows typical patterns of wildfires, flooding, and smaller seismic events, yet none have escalated to the defined criteria such as extreme magnitude or widespread impact thresholds. Historical baselines indicate natural disasters occur annually, but current atmospheric and tectonic conditions have not produced the outlier developments traders would need to shift consensus toward Yes before year-end. Upcoming seasonal peaks in hurricane and monsoon activity represent key monitoring points that could alter odds if forecasts intensify.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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