Trader consensus on a low likelihood of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-year, with USGS seismic monitoring, NOAA hurricane tracking, and Smithsonian volcano data showing activity within historical norms rather than outliers. No VEI 6+ eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or Category 5 U.S. landfalls have materialized, while smaller tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires remain below resolution thresholds. Model runs and early-season climatology continue to support typical frequency patterns, leaving ample time for potential shifts but currently anchoring the market-implied odds near 73.5% for no occurrence. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing USGS aftershock assessments represent the next key data points that could alter positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
$222,056 ปริมาณ
$222,056 ปริมาณ
$222,056 ปริมาณ
$222,056 ปริมาณ
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a low likelihood of a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 reflects the absence of extreme-magnitude events through mid-year, with USGS seismic monitoring, NOAA hurricane tracking, and Smithsonian volcano data showing activity within historical norms rather than outliers. No VEI 6+ eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or Category 5 U.S. landfalls have materialized, while smaller tropical cyclones, floods, and wildfires remain below resolution thresholds. Model runs and early-season climatology continue to support typical frequency patterns, leaving ample time for potential shifts but currently anchoring the market-implied odds near 73.5% for no occurrence. Upcoming NHC seasonal updates and ongoing USGS aftershock assessments represent the next key data points that could alter positioning.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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