Traders assign a 94.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals estimated at 25–50 years or longer based on USGS historical catalogs and paleoseismic records. Only five instrumentally recorded M9+ quakes have occurred since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, and none have struck in the current decade despite ongoing monitoring of major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 has featured several M7–8.8 events, such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, but these fall short of the threshold and do not indicate accelerating stress accumulation capable of producing a full-margin rupture in the remaining months. While an unforeseen megathrust failure in Cascadia or similar zones remains theoretically possible, current USGS data and the brief time window reinforce the strong market consensus against it.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% โอกาส
$272,844 ปริมาณ
$272,844 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
6% โอกาส
$272,844 ปริมาณ
$272,844 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 94.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals estimated at 25–50 years or longer based on USGS historical catalogs and paleoseismic records. Only five instrumentally recorded M9+ quakes have occurred since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, and none have struck in the current decade despite ongoing monitoring of major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 has featured several M7–8.8 events, such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, but these fall short of the threshold and do not indicate accelerating stress accumulation capable of producing a full-margin rupture in the remaining months. While an unforeseen megathrust failure in Cascadia or similar zones remains theoretically possible, current USGS data and the brief time window reinforce the strong market consensus against it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$272,844วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 94.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals estimated at 25–50 years or longer based on USGS historical catalogs and paleoseismic records. Only five instrumentally recorded M9+ quakes have occurred since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, and none have struck in the current decade despite ongoing monitoring of major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 has featured several M7–8.8 events, such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, but these fall short of the threshold and do not indicate accelerating stress accumulation capable of producing a full-margin rupture in the remaining months. While an unforeseen megathrust failure in Cascadia or similar zones remains theoretically possible, current USGS data and the brief time window reinforce the strong market consensus against it.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$272,844วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 94.1% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because such events are exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals estimated at 25–50 years or longer based on USGS historical catalogs and paleoseismic records. Only five instrumentally recorded M9+ quakes have occurred since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, and none have struck in the current decade despite ongoing monitoring of major subduction zones. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 has featured several M7–8.8 events, such as the 2025 Kamchatka sequence, but these fall short of the threshold and do not indicate accelerating stress accumulation capable of producing a full-margin rupture in the remaining months. While an unforeseen megathrust failure in Cascadia or similar zones remains theoretically possible, current USGS data and the brief time window reinforce the strong market consensus against it.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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