Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—per IMF PortWatch data showing 7-day average ship arrivals below 10—as unlikely soon, with May 31 odds at 4% and September 30 at 21%, reflecting Houthi threats tied to US-Iran tensions under the Trump administration despite US-UK naval patrols deterring action. Ongoing Red Sea disruptions have forced Cape of Good Hope rerouting, boosting Asia-Europe spot freight rates 23% to $5,820 per forty-foot equivalent unit, adding 10-14 days to voyages and 30-50% to supply chain costs, while sustaining Brent crude near $100 per barrel on geopolitical risk premiums. Escalation in Strait of Hormuz blockades or direct Iran strikes could shift market-implied odds ahead of peak summer shipping.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
Bab el-Mandeb ช่องแคบปิดอย่างมีประสิทธิภาพโดย...?
$2,678,419 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
31 พฤษภาคม
7%
June 30
12%
September 30
15%
$2,678,419 ปริมาณ
31 พฤษภาคม
$686,065 ปริมาณ
7%
June 30
$9,362 ปริมาณ
12%
September 30
$1,194 ปริมาณ
15%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—per IMF PortWatch data showing 7-day average ship arrivals below 10—as unlikely soon, with May 31 odds at 4% and September 30 at 21%, reflecting Houthi threats tied to US-Iran tensions under the Trump administration despite US-UK naval patrols deterring action. Ongoing Red Sea disruptions have forced Cape of Good Hope rerouting, boosting Asia-Europe spot freight rates 23% to $5,820 per forty-foot equivalent unit, adding 10-14 days to voyages and 30-50% to supply chain costs, while sustaining Brent crude near $100 per barrel on geopolitical risk premiums. Escalation in Strait of Hormuz blockades or direct Iran strikes could shift market-implied odds ahead of peak summer shipping.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,678,419วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—per IMF PortWatch data showing 7-day average ship arrivals below 10—as unlikely soon, with May 31 odds at 4% and September 30 at 21%, reflecting Houthi threats tied to US-Iran tensions under the Trump administration despite US-UK naval patrols deterring action. Ongoing Red Sea disruptions have forced Cape of Good Hope rerouting, boosting Asia-Europe spot freight rates 23% to $5,820 per forty-foot equivalent unit, adding 10-14 days to voyages and 30-50% to supply chain costs, while sustaining Brent crude near $100 per barrel on geopolitical risk premiums. Escalation in Strait of Hormuz blockades or direct Iran strikes could shift market-implied odds ahead of peak summer shipping.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,678,419วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—per IMF PortWatch data showing 7-day average ship arrivals below 10—as unlikely soon, with May 31 odds at 4% and September 30 at 21%, reflecting Houthi threats tied to US-Iran tensions under the Trump administration despite US-UK naval patrols deterring action. Ongoing Red Sea disruptions have forced Cape of Good Hope rerouting, boosting Asia-Europe spot freight rates 23% to $5,820 per forty-foot equivalent unit, adding 10-14 days to voyages and 30-50% to supply chain costs, while sustaining Brent crude near $100 per barrel on geopolitical risk premiums. Escalation in Strait of Hormuz blockades or direct Iran strikes could shift market-implied odds ahead of peak summer shipping.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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