**Ongoing military operations in Yemen's Red Sea coast and disputed territorial control are the main drivers of trader views on Bab el-Mandeb Strait passage.** In September 2026, Houthi forces seized coastal positions including Mokha, Dhubab, and Perim (Mayyun) Island, enforcing restrictions on Saudi-linked shipping and prompting a sharp drop in transits—tanker volumes fell roughly in half in some periods, with overall daily ship crossings around 30 (down about 10% year-over-year per IMF PortWatch data). No authority has declared a formal closure, and limited traffic persists despite risks. In early October, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched Operation Dawn of Yemen, claiming recapture of key sites and effective control of the strait area; Houthis rejected these reports and asserted continued hold on positions. Conflicting claims remain unverified independently. Shipping stays disrupted rather than halted, with some carriers returning via Suez while others reroute around the Cape. Escalation or further counteroffensives could alter security assessments and transit volumes through year-end.