Houthi forces seized Yemen’s Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, and strategic islands including Perim (Mayyun) in September 2026, positioning them to threaten traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait without issuing a formal closure declaration. Shipping volumes have fallen sharply—tanker transits roughly 26% below recent averages and overall Red Sea traffic down about 60% from pre-2023 levels—with many vessels rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope amid attacks on Saudi-linked shipping and elevated insurance costs. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming to retake key areas, though Houthi and coalition statements conflict and independent verification remains limited. No major maritime authority has labeled the strait closed, and limited commercial transits continue despite the hazards. Trader consensus reflected in current market prices assigns only modest near-term probability to effective closure, consistent with persistent but incomplete disruption and ongoing naval patrols by multiple nations.