Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July and nearby Larak launch sites in late August, have intensified focus on Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions on Hengam, Qeshm, and other islands with additional forces and assets while asserting sovereignty over shipping lanes and the strait itself. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam and Qeshm, killing one and wounding others, underscores continued kinetic activity but aligns with patterns of mutual strikes rather than shifts in territorial authority. Iran maintains that its armed forces control the waterway and islands, with a scheduled Iran-Gulf states meeting in Oman addressing transit conditions. Trader consensus prices the probability of any loss of Iranian control by late September at low single digits, reflecting the high threshold for verified changes in primary governmental or military administration amid the conflict.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,449 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,449 ปริมาณ
September 30
$2,609 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July and nearby Larak launch sites in late August, have intensified focus on Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions on Hengam, Qeshm, and other islands with additional forces and assets while asserting sovereignty over shipping lanes and the strait itself. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam and Qeshm, killing one and wounding others, underscores continued kinetic activity but aligns with patterns of mutual strikes rather than shifts in territorial authority. Iran maintains that its armed forces control the waterway and islands, with a scheduled Iran-Gulf states meeting in Oman addressing transit conditions. Trader consensus prices the probability of any loss of Iranian control by late September at low single digits, reflecting the high threshold for verified changes in primary governmental or military administration amid the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$208,449วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July and nearby Larak launch sites in late August, have intensified focus on Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions on Hengam, Qeshm, and other islands with additional forces and assets while asserting sovereignty over shipping lanes and the strait itself. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam and Qeshm, killing one and wounding others, underscores continued kinetic activity but aligns with patterns of mutual strikes rather than shifts in territorial authority. Iran maintains that its armed forces control the waterway and islands, with a scheduled Iran-Gulf states meeting in Oman addressing transit conditions. Trader consensus prices the probability of any loss of Iranian control by late September at low single digits, reflecting the high threshold for verified changes in primary governmental or military administration amid the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$208,449วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes on Hengam Island in July and nearby Larak launch sites in late August, have intensified focus on Iranian island defenses without altering administrative or military control. Tehran has reinforced positions on Hengam, Qeshm, and other islands with additional forces and assets while asserting sovereignty over shipping lanes and the strait itself. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam and Qeshm, killing one and wounding others, underscores continued kinetic activity but aligns with patterns of mutual strikes rather than shifts in territorial authority. Iran maintains that its armed forces control the waterway and islands, with a scheduled Iran-Gulf states meeting in Oman addressing transit conditions. Trader consensus prices the probability of any loss of Iranian control by late September at low single digits, reflecting the high threshold for verified changes in primary governmental or military administration amid the conflict.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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