The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid leadership decapitation, sustained U.S.-Israeli military pressure, and repeated protest waves through 2025-2026 underpins traders' near-certain view that collapse will not occur by October 31. Institutional continuity under Mojtaba Khamenei, IRGC cohesion, and the absence of widespread security force defections have allowed survival despite economic siege, sanctions, and internal unrest that peaked earlier in the year. Recent reports note subsiding demonstrations and no fresh escalatory triggers in the immediate window. While a sudden nationwide uprising combined with elite fractures or rapid external intervention could theoretically shift dynamics, the compressed timeline and lack of verifiable catalysts make such scenarios remote in the eyes of market pricing.