**Global seismic activity remains at typical background levels with no 6.5+ magnitude events recorded in the first days of the September 21–27 window.** USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring through September 24 shows the most recent events above this threshold occurred earlier in the month (including 6.5s in Indonesia on the 12th and Alaska on the 17th), leaving the current interval quiet. Worldwide, 6.0–6.9 quakes average roughly 2–3 per week historically, but short-term counts fluctuate widely due to the random timing of tectonic stress release along plate boundaries. With three-plus days elapsed without a qualifying event and no active subduction-zone alerts or aftershock sequences from major faults, trader consensus favors zero or one event by period end. New USGS catalog updates and any late-week model runs on regional strain could still shift odds if a larger rupture initiates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 21 - September 27?
0 63%
1 29%
2 9%
more than 5 1.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
0
63%
1
29%
2
9%
3
1%
4
1%
5
1%
more than 5
1%
0 63%
1 29%
2 9%
more than 5 1.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
0
$2,234 Vol.
63%
1
$674 Vol.
29%
2
$189 Vol.
9%
3
$96 Vol.
1%
4
$97 Vol.
1%
5
$220 Vol.
1%
more than 5
$668 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Global seismic activity remains at typical background levels with no 6.5+ magnitude events recorded in the first days of the September 21–27 window.** USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring through September 24 shows the most recent events above this threshold occurred earlier in the month (including 6.5s in Indonesia on the 12th and Alaska on the 17th), leaving the current interval quiet. Worldwide, 6.0–6.9 quakes average roughly 2–3 per week historically, but short-term counts fluctuate widely due to the random timing of tectonic stress release along plate boundaries. With three-plus days elapsed without a qualifying event and no active subduction-zone alerts or aftershock sequences from major faults, trader consensus favors zero or one event by period end. New USGS catalog updates and any late-week model runs on regional strain could still shift odds if a larger rupture initiates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 9:38 AM ET
Volume
$4,068End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 9:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.**Global seismic activity remains at typical background levels with no 6.5+ magnitude events recorded in the first days of the September 21–27 window.** USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring through September 24 shows the most recent events above this threshold occurred earlier in the month (including 6.5s in Indonesia on the 12th and Alaska on the 17th), leaving the current interval quiet. Worldwide, 6.0–6.9 quakes average roughly 2–3 per week historically, but short-term counts fluctuate widely due to the random timing of tectonic stress release along plate boundaries. With three-plus days elapsed without a qualifying event and no active subduction-zone alerts or aftershock sequences from major faults, trader consensus favors zero or one event by period end. New USGS catalog updates and any late-week model runs on regional strain could still shift odds if a larger rupture initiates.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$4,068End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 9:38 AM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47de9d...**Global seismic activity remains at typical background levels with no 6.5+ magnitude events recorded in the first days of the September 21–27 window.** USGS and VolcanoDiscovery monitoring through September 24 shows the most recent events above this threshold occurred earlier in the month (including 6.5s in Indonesia on the 12th and Alaska on the 17th), leaving the current interval quiet. Worldwide, 6.0–6.9 quakes average roughly 2–3 per week historically, but short-term counts fluctuate widely due to the random timing of tectonic stress release along plate boundaries. With three-plus days elapsed without a qualifying event and no active subduction-zone alerts or aftershock sequences from major faults, trader consensus favors zero or one event by period end. New USGS catalog updates and any late-week model runs on regional strain could still shift odds if a larger rupture initiates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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