Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, anchored by the total lack of official military preparations, policy announcements, or escalatory rhetoric from U.S. leadership. Historical context includes former President Trump's 2019 purchase proposal—rejected outright by Denmark—and sporadic 2024 campaign mentions favoring acquisition through negotiation, not force. Recent U.S. actions emphasize diplomatic and economic ties, such as mineral resource partnerships amid Arctic rivalries with Russia and China. Any invasion would violate NATO commitments, international law, and trigger massive backlash, aligning with zero credible indicators of intent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВторгнутся ли США в Гренландию в 2026 году?
Вторгнутся ли США в Гренландию в 2026 году?
Да
$1,234,293 Объем
$1,234,293 Объем
Да
$1,234,293 Объем
$1,234,293 Объем
For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 5, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026, anchored by the total lack of official military preparations, policy announcements, or escalatory rhetoric from U.S. leadership. Historical context includes former President Trump's 2019 purchase proposal—rejected outright by Denmark—and sporadic 2024 campaign mentions favoring acquisition through negotiation, not force. Recent U.S. actions emphasize diplomatic and economic ties, such as mineral resource partnerships amid Arctic rivalries with Russia and China. Any invasion would violate NATO commitments, international law, and trigger massive backlash, aligning with zero credible indicators of intent.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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