Traders price "No" at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any Canadian province officially announcing or scheduling an independence referendum before 2027, amid persistently low public support in recent polls. Quebec, the historic epicenter of separatism, sees sovereignty backing at around 35-40% per October Angus Reid surveys, far short of the Clarity Act's threshold for a credible question and federal approval. Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith emphasizes provincial autonomy through the Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act but has rejected outright separation, with independence sentiment hovering near 30%. No major catalysts emerged in the past month, including post-federal election dynamics, solidifying trader consensus on formidable constitutional, political, and electoral barriers ahead of Quebec's 2026 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$119,965 Объем
$119,965 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Да
$119,965 Объем
$119,965 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price "No" at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any Canadian province officially announcing or scheduling an independence referendum before 2027, amid persistently low public support in recent polls. Quebec, the historic epicenter of separatism, sees sovereignty backing at around 35-40% per October Angus Reid surveys, far short of the Clarity Act's threshold for a credible question and federal approval. Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith emphasizes provincial autonomy through the Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act but has rejected outright separation, with independence sentiment hovering near 30%. No major catalysts emerged in the past month, including post-federal election dynamics, solidifying trader consensus on formidable constitutional, political, and electoral barriers ahead of Quebec's 2026 vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Объем
$119,965Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price "No" at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any Canadian province officially announcing or scheduling an independence referendum before 2027, amid persistently low public support in recent polls. Quebec, the historic epicenter of separatism, sees sovereignty backing at around 35-40% per October Angus Reid surveys, far short of the Clarity Act's threshold for a credible question and federal approval. Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith emphasizes provincial autonomy through the Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act but has rejected outright separation, with independence sentiment hovering near 30%. No major catalysts emerged in the past month, including post-federal election dynamics, solidifying trader consensus on formidable constitutional, political, and electoral barriers ahead of Quebec's 2026 vote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$119,965Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price "No" at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any Canadian province officially announcing or scheduling an independence referendum before 2027, amid persistently low public support in recent polls. Quebec, the historic epicenter of separatism, sees sovereignty backing at around 35-40% per October Angus Reid surveys, far short of the Clarity Act's threshold for a credible question and federal approval. Alberta's Premier Danielle Smith emphasizes provincial autonomy through the Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act but has rejected outright separation, with independence sentiment hovering near 30%. No major catalysts emerged in the past month, including post-federal election dynamics, solidifying trader consensus on formidable constitutional, political, and electoral barriers ahead of Quebec's 2026 vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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