Canada's federal government has implemented tighter immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which cuts temporary resident targets—including students and workers—by roughly 37-49 percent from prior levels while holding permanent resident admissions near 380,000. This shift has produced net outflows of non-permanent residents, contributing to observed quarterly population declines of 0.2 percent in late 2025 and early 2026 data from Statistics Canada. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate overall population growth will stay flat through 2026 as these outflows offset births, deaths, and permanent inflows, before modest recovery in 2027. Traders appear to weigh these policy-driven reductions and recent negative net migration figures as the dominant factors tilting implied probabilities toward a year-end decline.