Following the April 2025 federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party formed a minority government in the 343-seat House of Commons, falling short of the 172 seats needed for a majority. Trader consensus at 98.6% Yes reflects a string of recent floor-crossings by opposition MPs—most notably in February and March 2026—that have brought Liberals within striking distance, augmented by favorable polling in upcoming April 13 by-elections in Toronto ridings. These developments signal eroding Conservative cohesion under Pierre Poilievre, boosting confidence in a pre-June 30 majority without a full election (traders price that at just 8%). Realistic shifts could arise from by-election upsets, additional Liberal resignations, or a successful no-confidence vote triggering snap proceedings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$137,612 Объем
$137,612 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
Да
$137,612 Объем
$137,612 Объем
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the April 2025 federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party formed a minority government in the 343-seat House of Commons, falling short of the 172 seats needed for a majority. Trader consensus at 98.6% Yes reflects a string of recent floor-crossings by opposition MPs—most notably in February and March 2026—that have brought Liberals within striking distance, augmented by favorable polling in upcoming April 13 by-elections in Toronto ridings. These developments signal eroding Conservative cohesion under Pierre Poilievre, boosting confidence in a pre-June 30 majority without a full election (traders price that at just 8%). Realistic shifts could arise from by-election upsets, additional Liberal resignations, or a successful no-confidence vote triggering snap proceedings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ET
Объем
$137,612Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.Following the April 2025 federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party formed a minority government in the 343-seat House of Commons, falling short of the 172 seats needed for a majority. Trader consensus at 98.6% Yes reflects a string of recent floor-crossings by opposition MPs—most notably in February and March 2026—that have brought Liberals within striking distance, augmented by favorable polling in upcoming April 13 by-elections in Toronto ridings. These developments signal eroding Conservative cohesion under Pierre Poilievre, boosting confidence in a pre-June 30 majority without a full election (traders price that at just 8%). Realistic shifts could arise from by-election upsets, additional Liberal resignations, or a successful no-confidence vote triggering snap proceedings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Canada holds a majority of seats in the House of Commons for any period of time between December 12, 2025 and June 30, 2026, otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "No" if Parliament is dissolved before June 30, 2026.
This markets resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the Liberal Party of Canada, not any alliance or coalition of which it may be a part.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$137,612Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the April 2025 federal election, Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal Party formed a minority government in the 343-seat House of Commons, falling short of the 172 seats needed for a majority. Trader consensus at 98.6% Yes reflects a string of recent floor-crossings by opposition MPs—most notably in February and March 2026—that have brought Liberals within striking distance, augmented by favorable polling in upcoming April 13 by-elections in Toronto ridings. These developments signal eroding Conservative cohesion under Pierre Poilievre, boosting confidence in a pre-June 30 majority without a full election (traders price that at just 8%). Realistic shifts could arise from by-election upsets, additional Liberal resignations, or a successful no-confidence vote triggering snap proceedings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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