Trader consensus implies low probabilities for formal diplomatic recognition of Israel by June 30 among holdout states like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Indonesia, driven by entrenched ideological opposition in Arab and Muslim-majority nations and unresolved Palestinian statehood demands. No new recognitions have occurred since the market launched in November 2025, with the most recent development being Israel's mid-March reports of secret post-war contacts with non-relations countries. Saudi Arabia's potential normalization—highest priced at around 12%—hinges on U.S.-brokered progress under the Trump administration's peace initiatives, echoing Abraham Accords expansions, though domestic politics and regional tensions pose significant barriers ahead of the deadline. Restorations like Bolivia's ties in December 2025 do not qualify as new recognitions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКакие страны признают Израиль к 30 июня?
Какие страны признают Израиль к 30 июня?
$115,043 Объем

Северная Корея
5%

Куба
5%

Саудовская Аравия
12%

Ливан
6%

Афганистан
5%

Ирак
5%

Пакистан
7%

Сирия
9%

Венесуэла
7%

Тунис
10%

Кувейт
9%

Катар
7%

Индонезия
7%

Малайзия
5%

Бангладеш
9%
$115,043 Объем

Северная Корея
5%

Куба
5%

Саудовская Аравия
12%

Ливан
6%

Афганистан
5%

Ирак
5%

Пакистан
7%

Сирия
9%

Венесуэла
7%

Тунис
10%

Кувейт
9%

Катар
7%

Индонезия
7%

Малайзия
5%

Бангладеш
9%
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies low probabilities for formal diplomatic recognition of Israel by June 30 among holdout states like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Indonesia, driven by entrenched ideological opposition in Arab and Muslim-majority nations and unresolved Palestinian statehood demands. No new recognitions have occurred since the market launched in November 2025, with the most recent development being Israel's mid-March reports of secret post-war contacts with non-relations countries. Saudi Arabia's potential normalization—highest priced at around 12%—hinges on U.S.-brokered progress under the Trump administration's peace initiatives, echoing Abraham Accords expansions, though domestic politics and regional tensions pose significant barriers ahead of the deadline. Restorations like Bolivia's ties in December 2025 do not qualify as new recognitions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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