Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February 2026 launch, which topped Elo ratings with superior reasoning and coding benchmarks while controlling for stylistic biases. Anthropic's rapid iteration—multiple Claude updates every two weeks—has widened the gap over rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas, both trailing at around 4% odds amid no confirmed superior releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants lag further due to weaker recent evaluations. With the resolution nearing and no major announcements from competitors, traders see low risk of displacement barring surprises like emergency model drops or benchmark shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоWhich company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Anthropic 86%
Google 4.1%
xAI 4.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
$819,923 Объем
$819,923 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Anthropic
86%
4%
xAI
4%
OpenAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 4.1%
xAI 4.1%
OpenAI 2.1%
$819,923 Объем
$819,923 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$22,717 Объем
86%
$129,630 Объем
4%
xAI
$130,174 Объем
4%
OpenAI
$88,559 Объем
2%
DeepSeek
$224,723 Объем
1%
Moonshot
$60,953 Объем
1%
Z.ai
$35,266 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$8,580 Объем
1%
Amazon
$29,764 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$8,591 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$63,249 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$7,732 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$9,985 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February 2026 launch, which topped Elo ratings with superior reasoning and coding benchmarks while controlling for stylistic biases. Anthropic's rapid iteration—multiple Claude updates every two weeks—has widened the gap over rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas, both trailing at around 4% odds amid no confirmed superior releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants lag further due to weaker recent evaluations. With the resolution nearing and no major announcements from competitors, traders see low risk of displacement barring surprises like emergency model drops or benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ET
Объем
$819,923Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February 2026 launch, which topped Elo ratings with superior reasoning and coding benchmarks while controlling for stylistic biases. Anthropic's rapid iteration—multiple Claude updates every two weeks—has widened the gap over rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas, both trailing at around 4% odds amid no confirmed superior releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants lag further due to weaker recent evaluations. With the resolution nearing and no major announcements from competitors, traders see low risk of displacement barring surprises like emergency model drops or benchmark shifts.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$819,923Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 20, 2026, 4:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 85.5% implied probability to hold the #1 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's sustained dominance since its February 2026 launch, which topped Elo ratings with superior reasoning and coding benchmarks while controlling for stylistic biases. Anthropic's rapid iteration—multiple Claude updates every two weeks—has widened the gap over rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok 4.20 betas, both trailing at around 4% odds amid no confirmed superior releases. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants lag further due to weaker recent evaluations. With the resolution nearing and no major announcements from competitors, traders see low risk of displacement barring surprises like emergency model drops or benchmark shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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