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Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Геополитика·Иран

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

апр. 30

апр. 30

$131,201 Объем

30 апр. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$131,201 Объем

Polymarket

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$11,870 Объем

31%

Al Zour Refinery

$4,834 Объем

31%

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$20,514 Объем

31%

Ras Tanura

$9,870 Объем

27%

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$10,900 Объем

27%

Ruwais Refinery

$17,488 Объем

23%

East–West Pipeline

$5,715 Объем

22%

Khurais Field

$5,584 Объем

20%

Safaniya Field

$4,479 Объем

19%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$11,597 Объем

19%

Ghawar Field

$2,128 Объем

18%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$19,425 Объем

5%

Burj Khalifa

$2,424 Объем

4%

Leviathan Field

$4,371 Объем

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has conducted retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia—including oil facilities—Israel, Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial area, and U.S. assets across the Gulf, degrading its own capabilities while prompting trader bets on further escalation against regional energy infrastructure. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, recently warned of "relentless attacks" on bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, and others aiding strikes, with IRGC threats on April 1 targeting U.S. firms' regional units. President Trump's April 1 address claimed Iran's forces "eviscerated," signaling a potential final phase, yet stalled talks—demanding Hormuz control and no missile limits—heighten risks of strikes on Saudi Abqaiq or Ras Tanura before April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$131,201
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has conducted retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia—including oil facilities—Israel, Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial area, and U.S. assets across the Gulf, degrading its own capabilities while prompting trader bets on further escalation against regional energy infrastructure. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, recently warned of "relentless attacks" on bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, and others aiding strikes, with IRGC threats on April 1 targeting U.S. firms' regional units. President Trump's April 1 address claimed Iran's forces "eviscerated," signaling a potential final phase, yet stalled talks—demanding Hormuz control and no missile limits—heighten risks of strikes on Saudi Abqaiq or Ras Tanura before April 30 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Объем
$131,201
Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 14 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Habshan Field/Processing Complex» с 31%, за ним следует «Al Zour Refinery» с 31%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 31¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 31%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $131.2K с момента запуска рынка Mar 23, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?», просмотри 14 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» — «Habshan Field/Processing Complex» с 31%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 31%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Al Zour Refinery» с 31%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.