President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to Sen. Thom Tillis's hold over a DOJ investigation into incumbent Chair Jerome Powell. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for mid-April represents a potential breakthrough, though Tillis plans to continue blocking advancement. Powell's term expires May 15, and he has stated he would serve as chair pro tempore if no successor is confirmed by then, citing Fed precedent. Traders weigh the hearing outcome, resolution of the Tillis objection, and Senate GOP dynamics as pivotal to whether Warsh advances, faces withdrawal, or encounters rejection before confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто произойдет до утверждения Кевина Уорша?
Что произойдет до утверждения Кевина Уорша?
$124,372 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Прекращение огня между США и Ираном
22%
Снижение ставки ФРС
6%
США подтверждают существование инопланетян
5%
$124,372 Объем
Прекращение огня между США и Ираном
$57,230 Объем
22%
Снижение ставки ФРС
$26,685 Объем
6%
США подтверждают существование инопланетян
$40,457 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to Sen. Thom Tillis's hold over a DOJ investigation into incumbent Chair Jerome Powell. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for mid-April represents a potential breakthrough, though Tillis plans to continue blocking advancement. Powell's term expires May 15, and he has stated he would serve as chair pro tempore if no successor is confirmed by then, citing Fed precedent. Traders weigh the hearing outcome, resolution of the Tillis objection, and Senate GOP dynamics as pivotal to whether Warsh advances, faces withdrawal, or encounters rejection before confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Объем
$124,372Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached or a consensus of credible reporting that Warsh has been confirmed will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
Both rate cuts resulting from scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meetings and emergency rate cuts will qualify as decreasing the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm). However, consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate and the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to Sen. Thom Tillis's hold over a DOJ investigation into incumbent Chair Jerome Powell. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for mid-April represents a potential breakthrough, though Tillis plans to continue blocking advancement. Powell's term expires May 15, and he has stated he would serve as chair pro tempore if no successor is confirmed by then, citing Fed precedent. Traders weigh the hearing outcome, resolution of the Tillis objection, and Senate GOP dynamics as pivotal to whether Warsh advances, faces withdrawal, or encounters rejection before confirmation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
If neither occurs by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Kevin Warsh being confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
An announcement of a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader will qualify regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market are official information from the U.S. Senate and a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$124,372Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Да
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Да
President Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4 remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee due to Sen. Thom Tillis's hold over a DOJ investigation into incumbent Chair Jerome Powell. Recent scheduling of Warsh's confirmation hearing for mid-April represents a potential breakthrough, though Tillis plans to continue blocking advancement. Powell's term expires May 15, and he has stated he would serve as chair pro tempore if no successor is confirmed by then, citing Fed precedent. Traders weigh the hearing outcome, resolution of the Tillis objection, and Senate GOP dynamics as pivotal to whether Warsh advances, faces withdrawal, or encounters rejection before confirmation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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