Trader consensus heavily favors Drake releasing his long-teased Iceman album first before GTA VI's November 19 launch, with an 86% implied probability driven by his March 30 Juno Awards speech confirming it's "coming soon," fan-cracked math puzzles hinting at an April 17 drop, and reports of final tweaks amid re-recording. Rihanna's return to the studio in late February has lifted her new album odds to 60%, matching Playboi Carti's post-MUSIC momentum, while GPT-6 rumors around OpenAI's "Spud" model sit at 57%. GTA VI remains on track per Take-Two's February reaffirmations, with summer marketing ahead; watch May earnings for delay risks that could shift the deadlock on lower-probability outcomes like Bitcoin $1M or geopolitical events.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЧто будет до GTA VI?
Что будет до GTA VI?
$19,613,156 Объем
Дрейк выпускает Iceman
86%
Новый альбом Playboi Carti
61%
Новый альбом Рианны
59%
GPT-6 выпущен
57%
Трамп уйдёт с поста президента
53%
Прекращение огня между Россией и Украиной
52%
Биткоин достигнет $1 млн
49%
Китай вторгается в Тайвань
49%
Иисус Христос возвращается
48%
$19,613,156 Объем
Дрейк выпускает Iceman
86%
Новый альбом Playboi Carti
61%
Новый альбом Рианны
59%
GPT-6 выпущен
57%
Трамп уйдёт с поста президента
53%
Прекращение огня между Россией и Украиной
52%
Биткоин достигнет $1 млн
49%
Китай вторгается в Тайвань
49%
Иисус Христос возвращается
48%
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 2, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Trader consensus heavily favors Drake releasing his long-teased Iceman album first before GTA VI's November 19 launch, with an 86% implied probability driven by his March 30 Juno Awards speech confirming it's "coming soon," fan-cracked math puzzles hinting at an April 17 drop, and reports of final tweaks amid re-recording. Rihanna's return to the studio in late February has lifted her new album odds to 60%, matching Playboi Carti's post-MUSIC momentum, while GPT-6 rumors around OpenAI's "Spud" model sit at 57%. GTA VI remains on track per Take-Two's February reaffirmations, with summer marketing ahead; watch May earnings for delay risks that could shift the deadlock on lower-probability outcomes like Bitcoin $1M or geopolitical events.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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