Plaid Cymru's dominant 81% implied probability in the Welsh Parliament election market stems from trader consensus on Labour's sharp decline amid ongoing budget austerity measures and public service strains under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who assumed office in August 2024 after Vaughan Gething's resignation over a donations scandal and no-confidence vote. Recent YouGov polling shows fragmented support, with Plaid maintaining core nationalist backing in northern and western constituencies while Reform UK surges to second place at 15% on Westminster general election momentum from July 2024, where it polled 14% regionally. Welsh Conservatives languish near zero following their UK-wide rout, leaving little room for recovery in the 2026 Senedd vote under the additional member proportional system, where 40 first-past-the-post seats and 20 regional lists will determine the largest party. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local issues like NHS waiting lists could sway undecideds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель парламентских выборов в Уэльсе
Победитель парламентских выборов в Уэльсе
Plaid Cymru 81%
Reform UK 16%
Уэльская лейбористская партия 1.8%
Валлийские консерваторы <1%
$19,145 Объем
$19,145 Объем
May 7, 2026
Уэльская лейбористская партия
2%
Plaid Cymru
81%
Валлийские консерваторы
<1%
Reform UK
16%
Валлийские либерал-демократы
<1%
Партия зелёных Уэльса
<1%
Plaid Cymru 81%
Reform UK 16%
Уэльская лейбористская партия 1.8%
Валлийские консерваторы <1%
$19,145 Объем
$19,145 Объем
May 7, 2026
Уэльская лейбористская партия
$3,346 Объем
2%
Plaid Cymru
$5,877 Объем
81%
Валлийские консерваторы
$2,492 Объем
<1%
Reform UK
$3,859 Объем
16%
Валлийские либерал-демократы
$1,865 Объем
<1%
Партия зелёных Уэльса
$1,706 Объем
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru's dominant 81% implied probability in the Welsh Parliament election market stems from trader consensus on Labour's sharp decline amid ongoing budget austerity measures and public service strains under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who assumed office in August 2024 after Vaughan Gething's resignation over a donations scandal and no-confidence vote. Recent YouGov polling shows fragmented support, with Plaid maintaining core nationalist backing in northern and western constituencies while Reform UK surges to second place at 15% on Westminster general election momentum from July 2024, where it polled 14% regionally. Welsh Conservatives languish near zero following their UK-wide rout, leaving little room for recovery in the 2026 Senedd vote under the additional member proportional system, where 40 first-past-the-post seats and 20 regional lists will determine the largest party. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local issues like NHS waiting lists could sway undecideds.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ET
Объем
$19,145Дата окончания
May 7, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).Plaid Cymru's dominant 81% implied probability in the Welsh Parliament election market stems from trader consensus on Labour's sharp decline amid ongoing budget austerity measures and public service strains under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who assumed office in August 2024 after Vaughan Gething's resignation over a donations scandal and no-confidence vote. Recent YouGov polling shows fragmented support, with Plaid maintaining core nationalist backing in northern and western constituencies while Reform UK surges to second place at 15% on Westminster general election momentum from July 2024, where it polled 14% regionally. Welsh Conservatives languish near zero following their UK-wide rout, leaving little room for recovery in the 2026 Senedd vote under the additional member proportional system, where 40 first-past-the-post seats and 20 regional lists will determine the largest party. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local issues like NHS waiting lists could sway undecideds.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.
If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales (https://senedd.wales/).
Объем
$19,145Дата окончания
May 7, 2026Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Plaid Cymru's dominant 81% implied probability in the Welsh Parliament election market stems from trader consensus on Labour's sharp decline amid ongoing budget austerity measures and public service strains under First Minister Eluned Morgan, who assumed office in August 2024 after Vaughan Gething's resignation over a donations scandal and no-confidence vote. Recent YouGov polling shows fragmented support, with Plaid maintaining core nationalist backing in northern and western constituencies while Reform UK surges to second place at 15% on Westminster general election momentum from July 2024, where it polled 14% regionally. Welsh Conservatives languish near zero following their UK-wide rout, leaving little room for recovery in the 2026 Senedd vote under the additional member proportional system, where 40 first-past-the-post seats and 20 regional lists will determine the largest party. No major shifts in the past week, but upcoming local issues like NHS waiting lists could sway undecideds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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