Since the U.S. military intervention captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, Venezuela has entered a fragile political transition with opposition figures like María Corina Machado signaling a return and youth expressing mixed hopes amid economic challenges. No verifiable reports of military dissent, factional plotting, or coup mobilization have emerged in the past 30 days, stabilizing trader consensus at near-certainty against a coup attempt by March 31. Key factors include the Maduro regime's collapse, ongoing coalition talks among remnants of his PSUV party and opposition, and absent escalation signals from armed forces or colectivos. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden no-confidence vote failure, border skirmishes with Colombia, or external sanctions triggering elite defections, though institutional fatigue post-intervention limits near-term volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
$51,782 Объем
$51,782 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
Да
$51,782 Объем
$51,782 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Since the U.S. military intervention captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, Venezuela has entered a fragile political transition with opposition figures like María Corina Machado signaling a return and youth expressing mixed hopes amid economic challenges. No verifiable reports of military dissent, factional plotting, or coup mobilization have emerged in the past 30 days, stabilizing trader consensus at near-certainty against a coup attempt by March 31. Key factors include the Maduro regime's collapse, ongoing coalition talks among remnants of his PSUV party and opposition, and absent escalation signals from armed forces or colectivos. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden no-confidence vote failure, border skirmishes with Colombia, or external sanctions triggering elite defections, though institutional fatigue post-intervention limits near-term volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$51,782Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Since the U.S. military intervention captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, Venezuela has entered a fragile political transition with opposition figures like María Corina Machado signaling a return and youth expressing mixed hopes amid economic challenges. No verifiable reports of military dissent, factional plotting, or coup mobilization have emerged in the past 30 days, stabilizing trader consensus at near-certainty against a coup attempt by March 31. Key factors include the Maduro regime's collapse, ongoing coalition talks among remnants of his PSUV party and opposition, and absent escalation signals from armed forces or colectivos. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden no-confidence vote failure, border skirmishes with Colombia, or external sanctions triggering elite defections, though institutional fatigue post-intervention limits near-term volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Venezuela at any point between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Venezuelan government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Venezuelan government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$51,782Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since the U.S. military intervention captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, Venezuela has entered a fragile political transition with opposition figures like María Corina Machado signaling a return and youth expressing mixed hopes amid economic challenges. No verifiable reports of military dissent, factional plotting, or coup mobilization have emerged in the past 30 days, stabilizing trader consensus at near-certainty against a coup attempt by March 31. Key factors include the Maduro regime's collapse, ongoing coalition talks among remnants of his PSUV party and opposition, and absent escalation signals from armed forces or colectivos. Realistic shifts could stem from a sudden no-confidence vote failure, border skirmishes with Colombia, or external sanctions triggering elite defections, though institutional fatigue post-intervention limits near-term volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы