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Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?

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Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?

Ended: Mar 31

Ended: Mar 31

$87,408,772 Объем

Dec 5, 2025
Polymarket

$87,408,772 Объем

Polymarket

30 сентября

$817,622 Объем

Нет

24 октября

$779,617 Объем

Нет

27 октября

$696,878 Объем

Нет

31 октября

$6,816,571 Объем

Нет

1 ноября

$326,121 Объем

Нет

2 ноября

$471,084 Объем

Нет

3 ноября

$229,366 Объем

Нет

5 ноября

$267,724 Объем

Нет

7 ноября

$1,504,728 Объем

Нет

14 ноября

$1,602,553 Объем

Нет

November 21

$841,108 Объем

Нет

23 ноября

$55,682 Объем

Нет

24 ноября

$357,095 Объем

Нет

25 ноября

$174,897 Объем

Нет

26 ноября

$292,785 Объем

Нет

27 ноября

$401,690 Объем

Нет

30 ноября

$9,188,344 Объем

Нет

5 декабря

$731,935 Объем

Нет

9 декабря

$310,647 Объем

Нет

15 декабря

$3,803,403 Объем

Нет

23 декабря

$941,599 Объем

Нет

31 декабря

$51,073,021 Объем

Нет

15 января 2026 года

$3,298,466 Объем

Да

31 января 2026 года

$931,284 Объем

Да

31 марта 2026 года

$1,444,954 Объем

Да

30 июня 2026 года

$21,402 Объем

Да

31 декабря 2026 года

$28,198 Объем

Да

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between December 2, and December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$87,408,772
Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026
Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 1:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between December 2, and December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify). Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 27 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "15 января 2026 года" at 100%, followed by "31 января 2026 года" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?" has generated $87.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?," browse the 27 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?" is "15 января 2026 года" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 января 2026 года" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Военное столкновение США и Венесуэлы?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.