Trader consensus reflects persistent U.S. skepticism toward formally recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader, despite the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro following military strikes in Caracas. President Trump publicly stated Machado "doesn't have the respect" to lead, echoing White House frustrations voiced in February over her post-election comments, even after her White House visit and symbolic Nobel Peace Prize gesture. The U.S. had recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as president-elect in November 2024, but has not extended similar status to Machado amid an interim government navigating reforms under U.S. pressure. Her planned return to Venezuela lacks official endorsement, reinforcing the 83.5% implied probability of no recognition by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоДа
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Да
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects persistent U.S. skepticism toward formally recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader, despite the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro following military strikes in Caracas. President Trump publicly stated Machado "doesn't have the respect" to lead, echoing White House frustrations voiced in February over her post-election comments, even after her White House visit and symbolic Nobel Peace Prize gesture. The U.S. had recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as president-elect in November 2024, but has not extended similar status to Machado amid an interim government navigating reforms under U.S. pressure. Her planned return to Venezuela lacks official endorsement, reinforcing the 83.5% implied probability of no recognition by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects persistent U.S. skepticism toward formally recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader, despite the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro following military strikes in Caracas. President Trump publicly stated Machado "doesn't have the respect" to lead, echoing White House frustrations voiced in February over her post-election comments, even after her White House visit and symbolic Nobel Peace Prize gesture. The U.S. had recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as president-elect in November 2024, but has not extended similar status to Machado amid an interim government navigating reforms under U.S. pressure. Her planned return to Venezuela lacks official endorsement, reinforcing the 83.5% implied probability of no recognition by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects persistent U.S. skepticism toward formally recognizing María Corina Machado as Venezuela's leader, despite the January 2026 U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro following military strikes in Caracas. President Trump publicly stated Machado "doesn't have the respect" to lead, echoing White House frustrations voiced in February over her post-election comments, even after her White House visit and symbolic Nobel Peace Prize gesture. The U.S. had recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as president-elect in November 2024, but has not extended similar status to Machado amid an interim government navigating reforms under U.S. pressure. Her planned return to Venezuela lacks official endorsement, reinforcing the 83.5% implied probability of no recognition by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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