Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with the US publicly distancing itself while bolstering regional defenses through naval deployments. No direct US-Iran hostilities exist, obviating a formal ceasefire, but proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria sustain friction. Indirect diplomacy via Oman persists on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, yet mutual distrust and Iran's support for militias block de-escalation. The incoming Trump administration's foreign policy signals, including tougher sanctions rhetoric, add uncertainty ahead of the January 20 inauguration, as traders monitor escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСША x Иран прекращение огня...?
США x Иран прекращение огня...?
$53,148,075 Объем
31 марта
5%
7 апреля
14%
15 апреля
26%
30 апреля
40%
31 мая
53%
30 июня
61%
31 декабря
76%
$53,148,075 Объем
31 марта
$33,370,042 Объем
5%
7 апреля
$615,659 Объем
14%
15 апреля
$5,051,442 Объем
26%
30 апреля
$5,869,916 Объем
40%
31 мая
$2,101,479 Объем
53%
30 июня
$2,203,031 Объем
61%
31 декабря
$444,455 Объем
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with the US publicly distancing itself while bolstering regional defenses through naval deployments. No direct US-Iran hostilities exist, obviating a formal ceasefire, but proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria sustain friction. Indirect diplomacy via Oman persists on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, yet mutual distrust and Iran's support for militias block de-escalation. The incoming Trump administration's foreign policy signals, including tougher sanctions rhetoric, add uncertainty ahead of the January 20 inauguration, as traders monitor escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Объем
$53,148,075Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with the US publicly distancing itself while bolstering regional defenses through naval deployments. No direct US-Iran hostilities exist, obviating a formal ceasefire, but proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria sustain friction. Indirect diplomacy via Oman persists on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, yet mutual distrust and Iran's support for militias block de-escalation. The incoming Trump administration's foreign policy signals, including tougher sanctions rhetoric, add uncertainty ahead of the January 20 inauguration, as traders monitor escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$53,148,075Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the US and Iran remain elevated following Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage, with the US publicly distancing itself while bolstering regional defenses through naval deployments. No direct US-Iran hostilities exist, obviating a formal ceasefire, but proxy conflicts involving Iranian-backed groups in Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria sustain friction. Indirect diplomacy via Oman persists on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, yet mutual distrust and Iran's support for militias block de-escalation. The incoming Trump administration's foreign policy signals, including tougher sanctions rhetoric, add uncertainty ahead of the January 20 inauguration, as traders monitor escalation risks or diplomatic breakthroughs.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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