Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 75% implied probability to defeat Rep. Al Green in the May 26 runoff, driven by Menefee's recent incumbency advantage after winning a January special election runoff to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, combined with a February Hobby School poll showing him ahead 52%-28% among likely voters. Redistricting pitted the two Democrats—Menefee holding the safely blue seat and Green, a longtime TX-9 representative displaced into the district—against each other, with neither securing a March 3 primary majority as Menefee led the multicaucus field. Green's recent criticism of Menefee's congressional attendance has failed to shift momentum, underscoring Menefee's stronger path to victory in the low-turnout runoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоКристиан Менифи 80.2%
Эл Грин 23.8%
Аманда Эдвардс <1%
Гретхен Браун <1%
Кристиан Менифи
74%
Эл Грин
24%
Аманда Эдвардс
<1%
Гретхен Браун
<1%
Кристиан Менифи 80.2%
Эл Грин 23.8%
Аманда Эдвардс <1%
Гретхен Браун <1%
Кристиан Менифи
74%
Эл Грин
24%
Аманда Эдвардс
<1%
Гретхен Браун
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the TX-18 Democratic primary heavily favors Rep. Christian Menefee at 75% implied probability to defeat Rep. Al Green in the May 26 runoff, driven by Menefee's recent incumbency advantage after winning a January special election runoff to succeed the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, combined with a February Hobby School poll showing him ahead 52%-28% among likely voters. Redistricting pitted the two Democrats—Menefee holding the safely blue seat and Green, a longtime TX-9 representative displaced into the district—against each other, with neither securing a March 3 primary majority as Menefee led the multicaucus field. Green's recent criticism of Menefee's congressional attendance has failed to shift momentum, underscoring Menefee's stronger path to victory in the low-turnout runoff.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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