Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's refusal to withdraw from the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff ballot against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by the March 17 deadline has solidified trader consensus at 95.5% against him dropping out, reflecting the locked-in nature of Texas election procedures where names remain even if campaigns suspend. Recent momentum from Paxton's CPAC endorsement and strong crowd support at the March 30 Texas Republican event in Grapevine underscores his commitment, following an earlier conditional offer to exit tied to Senate GOP passage of the SAVE America Act that went unmet. While historical primary runoffs show volatility, realistic shifts would require late-breaking developments like a decisive Trump endorsement for Cornyn, a major scandal, health event, or fundraising collapse ahead of the May runoff.