Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among top bins for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5-day domestic opening weekend (April 1-5), with >$200M leading at 28% implied probability ahead of 190-200M (19.4%) and 170-180M (18.8%). Surging pre-sales and tracking estimates from Deadline and BoxOfficePro—projecting $160M+ amid Easter family demand—have fueled optimism, amplified by the March 9 final trailer, strong YouTube views nearing the 2023 predecessor, and recent Fox McCloud casting buzz. Yet, some trackers like $135-145M 3-day forecasts highlight walkup risks and softer pacing versus the prior film's $204M 5-day record, with final metrics through March 31 poised to sway this blockbuster race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 29%
190-200m 19.4%
170-180m 18.8%
180-190m 15.2%
$287,568 Объем
$287,568 Объем
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
7%
160-170m
13%
170-180m
19%
180-190m
15%
190-200m
19%
>200m
29%
>200m 29%
190-200m 19.4%
170-180m 18.8%
180-190m 15.2%
$287,568 Объем
$287,568 Объем
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$21,652 Объем
7%
160-170m
$21,226 Объем
13%
170-180m
$20,302 Объем
19%
180-190m
$21,161 Объем
15%
190-200m
$21,780 Объем
19%
>200m
$181,446 Объем
29%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among top bins for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5-day domestic opening weekend (April 1-5), with >$200M leading at 28% implied probability ahead of 190-200M (19.4%) and 170-180M (18.8%). Surging pre-sales and tracking estimates from Deadline and BoxOfficePro—projecting $160M+ amid Easter family demand—have fueled optimism, amplified by the March 9 final trailer, strong YouTube views nearing the 2023 predecessor, and recent Fox McCloud casting buzz. Yet, some trackers like $135-145M 3-day forecasts highlight walkup risks and softer pacing versus the prior film's $204M 5-day record, with final metrics through March 31 poised to sway this blockbuster race.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Объем
$287,568Дата окончания
Apr 6, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among top bins for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5-day domestic opening weekend (April 1-5), with >$200M leading at 28% implied probability ahead of 190-200M (19.4%) and 170-180M (18.8%). Surging pre-sales and tracking estimates from Deadline and BoxOfficePro—projecting $160M+ amid Easter family demand—have fueled optimism, amplified by the March 9 final trailer, strong YouTube views nearing the 2023 predecessor, and recent Fox McCloud casting buzz. Yet, some trackers like $135-145M 3-day forecasts highlight walkup risks and softer pacing versus the prior film's $204M 5-day record, with final metrics through March 31 poised to sway this blockbuster race.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Объем
$287,568Дата окончания
Apr 6, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight competition among top bins for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5-day domestic opening weekend (April 1-5), with >$200M leading at 28% implied probability ahead of 190-200M (19.4%) and 170-180M (18.8%). Surging pre-sales and tracking estimates from Deadline and BoxOfficePro—projecting $160M+ amid Easter family demand—have fueled optimism, amplified by the March 9 final trailer, strong YouTube views nearing the 2023 predecessor, and recent Fox McCloud casting buzz. Yet, some trackers like $135-145M 3-day forecasts highlight walkup risks and softer pacing versus the prior film's $204M 5-day record, with final metrics through March 31 poised to sway this blockbuster race.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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