Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services, coupled with Republican control of the Senate, drives the 77% implied probability that RFK Jr. will not exit his position or nomination by December 31. Traders weigh Trump's public defense of the pick against pockets of GOP skepticism, including from senators like Bill Cassidy over Kennedy's vaccine views, but note no formal withdrawal or rejection signals. Recent developments, such as Kennedy's meetings with key senators and the absence of major scandals during vetting, reinforce expectations of continuity amid the confirmation timeline, with hearings likely post-inauguration but before year-end. This trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of political momentum favoring retention.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
Объем
$3,239Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) ceases to be United States Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)'s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.) and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$3,239Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for Secretary of Health and Human Services, coupled with Republican control of the Senate, drives the 77% implied probability that RFK Jr. will not exit his position or nomination by December 31. Traders weigh Trump's public defense of the pick against pockets of GOP skepticism, including from senators like Bill Cassidy over Kennedy's vaccine views, but note no formal withdrawal or rejection signals. Recent developments, such as Kennedy's meetings with key senators and the absence of major scandals during vetting, reinforce expectations of continuity amid the confirmation timeline, with hearings likely post-inauguration but before year-end. This trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of political momentum favoring retention.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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