Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "Yes" shares at 70.5% for no paradigm-shifting events through December 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any resolution triggers in the first four months since January, including President Trump's continued tenure amid routine executive actions, Xi Jinping's stable leadership, and no escalatory invasions such as China into Taiwan or Russia into a NATO country. Recent U.S. strikes on Iran, downplayed by the White House as limited with a ceasefire holding, have avoided full-scale invasion or regime collapse, while Bitcoin prices remain steadily between $10,000 and $1 million. No major natural disasters like VEI 6+ eruptions or 9.0+ earthquakes have occurred, bolstering odds despite risks from November midterms potentially yielding a Republican Senate supermajority.