Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "No" at 58.5%, reflecting elevated risks of resolution triggers amid recent geopolitical shocks and midterm dynamics. The March 1 reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike, followed by successor Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from public view through late March, have heightened uncertainty over Iranian regime stability—a direct trigger. Early 2026 Senate polls favor Republican pickups in the November midterms, raising odds of a trifecta with Senate supermajority. Persistent China-Taiwan tensions, Russia-Ukraine hybrid threats to NATO, Bitcoin's volatility around $68,000, and impeachment murmurs against President Trump post-strike further bolster the crowd's assessment that at least one major event will occur by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНичего не происходит: 2026
Ничего не происходит: 2026
Да
$442,710 Объем
$442,710 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$442,710 Объем
$442,710 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "No" at 58.5%, reflecting elevated risks of resolution triggers amid recent geopolitical shocks and midterm dynamics. The March 1 reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike, followed by successor Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from public view through late March, have heightened uncertainty over Iranian regime stability—a direct trigger. Early 2026 Senate polls favor Republican pickups in the November midterms, raising odds of a trifecta with Senate supermajority. Persistent China-Taiwan tensions, Russia-Ukraine hybrid threats to NATO, Bitcoin's volatility around $68,000, and impeachment murmurs against President Trump post-strike further bolster the crowd's assessment that at least one major event will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$442,710Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "No" at 58.5%, reflecting elevated risks of resolution triggers amid recent geopolitical shocks and midterm dynamics. The March 1 reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike, followed by successor Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from public view through late March, have heightened uncertainty over Iranian regime stability—a direct trigger. Early 2026 Senate polls favor Republican pickups in the November midterms, raising odds of a trifecta with Senate supermajority. Persistent China-Taiwan tensions, Russia-Ukraine hybrid threats to NATO, Bitcoin's volatility around $68,000, and impeachment murmurs against President Trump post-strike further bolster the crowd's assessment that at least one major event will occur by year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Объем
$442,710Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices "No" at 58.5%, reflecting elevated risks of resolution triggers amid recent geopolitical shocks and midterm dynamics. The March 1 reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a U.S.-Israel strike, followed by successor Mojtaba Khamenei's injury and absence from public view through late March, have heightened uncertainty over Iranian regime stability—a direct trigger. Early 2026 Senate polls favor Republican pickups in the November midterms, raising odds of a trifecta with Senate supermajority. Persistent China-Taiwan tensions, Russia-Ukraine hybrid threats to NATO, Bitcoin's volatility around $68,000, and impeachment murmurs against President Trump post-strike further bolster the crowd's assessment that at least one major event will occur by year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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