Traders assign a 70% implied probability that none of the listed high-impact events will occur by December 31, 2026. Official statements from the White House, Beijing, and Tehran show continuity in leadership and no active preparations for invasion, regime change, or direct military intervention. Diplomatic channels and intelligence assessments indicate stable relations across the Taiwan Strait, Middle East, and NATO borders, with no recent summits, votes, or troop movements signaling escalation. Bitcoin price action has remained within historical ranges absent extreme volatility triggers, while U.S. Senate composition and executive tenure show no immediate shifts toward supermajority control or removal. Scheduled legislative sessions and ongoing negotiations introduce variables but have not yet produced catalysts sufficient to move the market away from the leading outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНичего не происходит: 2026
Да
$590,766 Объем
$590,766 Объем
Да
$590,766 Объем
$590,766 Объем
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 70% implied probability that none of the listed high-impact events will occur by December 31, 2026. Official statements from the White House, Beijing, and Tehran show continuity in leadership and no active preparations for invasion, regime change, or direct military intervention. Diplomatic channels and intelligence assessments indicate stable relations across the Taiwan Strait, Middle East, and NATO borders, with no recent summits, votes, or troop movements signaling escalation. Bitcoin price action has remained within historical ranges absent extreme volatility triggers, while U.S. Senate composition and executive tenure show no immediate shifts toward supermajority control or removal. Scheduled legislative sessions and ongoing negotiations introduce variables but have not yet produced catalysts sufficient to move the market away from the leading outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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