The March 31 deadline has passed without NATO invoking Article 5's collective defense clause, as no armed attack occurred against alliance territory, yielding trader consensus at 100% for "No." This high confidence stems from the absence of qualifying incidents despite regional tensions, including Russia's ongoing war in non-NATO Ukraine and a March 5 Iranian ballistic missile downed near Turkey, which NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte explicitly ruled out as grounds for activation. Recent U.S. signals under the Trump administration questioning alliance commitments have fueled debate but not escalation to formal invocation by the North Atlantic Council. Realistic shifts would require unprecedented retroactive claims over past events, though procedural hurdles make this improbable.