U.S. government personnel have not conducted direct ground operations or kinetic strikes against designated cartel targets on foreign soil since the Trump administration labeled several Mexican groups as foreign terrorist organizations and issued directives authorizing military force in the Western Hemisphere. Mexican authorities have carried out high-profile actions such as the February operation targeting CJNG leader El Mencho, relying on U.S. intelligence sharing while explicitly rejecting any American on-the-ground participation to preserve sovereignty. Traders assign roughly 26 percent probability to a qualifying U.S. operation by June 30 amid ongoing bilateral extraditions, expanded surveillance, and regional coalition talks, but face structural barriers including Mexican President Sheinbaum’s opposition to unilateral action and the absence of confirmed deployment timelines. No major new catalysts have emerged in the past month to shift this assessment.