US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's second month since the March 1 offensive killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, achieved air superiority over Tehran, and decimated much of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets, driving trader consensus toward an end by June 30 at 84% implied probability. Israel's March 27 strikes on nuclear facilities and Houthi entry into the fray on March 28 provoked limited Iranian retaliation amid Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy escalations, yet no ground invasion or regime collapse has materialized. President Trump's diplomatic push for a 15-point deal, post-March 27 deadline extension, and White House threats of further action signal prolonged de-escalation potential without immediate ceasefire, with congressional 30-60 day authorizations as a key timeline factor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$246,788 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
March 30
<1%
March 31
1%
15 апреля
20%
30 апреля
38%
31 мая
74%
30 июня
84%
$246,788 Объем
March 30
$24,586 Объем
<1%
March 31
$105,807 Объем
1%
15 апреля
$6,477 Объем
20%
30 апреля
$5,050 Объем
38%
31 мая
$2,862 Объем
74%
30 июня
$386 Объем
84%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's second month since the March 1 offensive killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, achieved air superiority over Tehran, and decimated much of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets, driving trader consensus toward an end by June 30 at 84% implied probability. Israel's March 27 strikes on nuclear facilities and Houthi entry into the fray on March 28 provoked limited Iranian retaliation amid Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy escalations, yet no ground invasion or regime collapse has materialized. President Trump's diplomatic push for a 15-point deal, post-March 27 deadline extension, and White House threats of further action signal prolonged de-escalation potential without immediate ceasefire, with congressional 30-60 day authorizations as a key timeline factor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Объем
$246,788Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's second month since the March 1 offensive killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, achieved air superiority over Tehran, and decimated much of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets, driving trader consensus toward an end by June 30 at 84% implied probability. Israel's March 27 strikes on nuclear facilities and Houthi entry into the fray on March 28 provoked limited Iranian retaliation amid Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy escalations, yet no ground invasion or regime collapse has materialized. President Trump's diplomatic push for a 15-point deal, post-March 27 deadline extension, and White House threats of further action signal prolonged de-escalation potential without immediate ceasefire, with congressional 30-60 day authorizations as a key timeline factor.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$246,788Дата окончания
Jun 30, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes against Iran persist into the conflict's second month since the March 1 offensive killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, achieved air superiority over Tehran, and decimated much of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets, driving trader consensus toward an end by June 30 at 84% implied probability. Israel's March 27 strikes on nuclear facilities and Houthi entry into the fray on March 28 provoked limited Iranian retaliation amid Strait of Hormuz closure and proxy escalations, yet no ground invasion or regime collapse has materialized. President Trump's diplomatic push for a 15-point deal, post-March 27 deadline extension, and White House threats of further action signal prolonged de-escalation potential without immediate ceasefire, with congressional 30-60 day authorizations as a key timeline factor.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы