Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI at ≥2.8%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets amid escalating Middle East war tensions that have spiked energy prices and elevated Cleveland Fed nowcasts to 3.25% year-over-year as of April 1. February CPI held steady at 2.4%, but strong retail sales and rising gasoline costs signal reacceleration, compounded by FOMC's March 18 upward revision of 2026 PCE inflation projections to 2.7%. This strong positioning underscores sticky inflation dynamics, though a surprise ceasefire or softer shelter components could challenge it ahead of the BLS release around April 10.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥2,8% 98.4%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,069,884 Объем
$3,069,884 Объем
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
≥2,8% 98.4%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$3,069,884 Объем
$3,069,884 Объем
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket has priced a 98.5% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI at ≥2.8%, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game bets amid escalating Middle East war tensions that have spiked energy prices and elevated Cleveland Fed nowcasts to 3.25% year-over-year as of April 1. February CPI held steady at 2.4%, but strong retail sales and rising gasoline costs signal reacceleration, compounded by FOMC's March 18 upward revision of 2026 PCE inflation projections to 2.7%. This strong positioning underscores sticky inflation dynamics, though a surprise ceasefire or softer shelter components could challenge it ahead of the BLS release around April 10.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы