Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.4% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment with elevated nowcasting models like Cleveland Fed's 0.84% core CPI month-over-month estimate as of March 31. This surge from February's flat 2.4% year-over-year print stems from recent gasoline price jumps of 33% through mid-March amid geopolitical tensions, hotter February producer prices, and rising consumer inflation expectations to 3.8%. FOMC March projections also modestly raised 2026 PCE forecasts. Realistic challenges include a softer-than-expected March core reading or energy price reversal ahead of the April 10 release, potentially capping year-over-year gains below the threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено≥2,8% 98.3%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$2,975,035 Объем
$2,975,035 Объем
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
≥2,8% 98.3%
≤2,0% <1%
2,6% <1%
2,7% <1%
$2,975,035 Объем
$2,975,035 Объем
≤2,0%
1%
2,1%
<1%
2,2%
<1%
2,3%
<1%
2,4%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,6%
<1%
2,7%
<1%
≥2,8%
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an overwhelming 98.4% implied probability for March 2026 US CPI annual inflation at ≥2.8%, reflecting skin-in-the-game alignment with elevated nowcasting models like Cleveland Fed's 0.84% core CPI month-over-month estimate as of March 31. This surge from February's flat 2.4% year-over-year print stems from recent gasoline price jumps of 33% through mid-March amid geopolitical tensions, hotter February producer prices, and rising consumer inflation expectations to 3.8%. FOMC March projections also modestly raised 2026 PCE forecasts. Realistic challenges include a softer-than-expected March core reading or energy price reversal ahead of the April 10 release, potentially capping year-over-year gains below the threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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