Trader consensus strongly backs Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rates above 2.5% at 78% implied probability, fueled by reports of President-elect Trump's recent interviews with the former Fed governor, whose hawkish reputation favors tighter policy amid sticky inflation readings. The Fed's December 25 basis point cut to 4.75-5% range has not deterred bets on sustained elevated rates under Warsh, as traders weigh persistent CPI pressures and Trump's push for looser money clashing with Warsh's track record. Rival outcomes like Rick Rieder trail due to scant momentum, while "Other" at 4.5% captures uncertainty ahead of Powell's 2026 term end and confirmation battles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПрогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС
Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 72%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 12%
Другое 4.5%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5% 4.1%
$14,234 Объем
$14,234 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%
76%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%
12%
Другое
5%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
4%
Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%
1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%
1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
<1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 72%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 12%
Другое 4.5%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5% 4.1%
$14,234 Объем
$14,234 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%
$6,589 Объем
76%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
12%
Другое
$0 Объем
5%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
4%
Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%
$0 Объем
1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
<1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%
$0 Объем
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%
$7,645 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus strongly backs Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rates above 2.5% at 78% implied probability, fueled by reports of President-elect Trump's recent interviews with the former Fed governor, whose hawkish reputation favors tighter policy amid sticky inflation readings. The Fed's December 25 basis point cut to 4.75-5% range has not deterred bets on sustained elevated rates under Warsh, as traders weigh persistent CPI pressures and Trump's push for looser money clashing with Warsh's track record. Rival outcomes like Rick Rieder trail due to scant momentum, while "Other" at 4.5% captures uncertainty ahead of Powell's 2026 term end and confirmation battles.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Объем
$14,234Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus strongly backs Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rates above 2.5% at 78% implied probability, fueled by reports of President-elect Trump's recent interviews with the former Fed governor, whose hawkish reputation favors tighter policy amid sticky inflation readings. The Fed's December 25 basis point cut to 4.75-5% range has not deterred bets on sustained elevated rates under Warsh, as traders weigh persistent CPI pressures and Trump's push for looser money clashing with Warsh's track record. Rival outcomes like Rick Rieder trail due to scant momentum, while "Other" at 4.5% captures uncertainty ahead of Powell's 2026 term end and confirmation battles.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Объем
$14,234Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly backs Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair with federal funds rates above 2.5% at 78% implied probability, fueled by reports of President-elect Trump's recent interviews with the former Fed governor, whose hawkish reputation favors tighter policy amid sticky inflation readings. The Fed's December 25 basis point cut to 4.75-5% range has not deterred bets on sustained elevated rates under Warsh, as traders weigh persistent CPI pressures and Trump's push for looser money clashing with Warsh's track record. Rival outcomes like Rick Rieder trail due to scant momentum, while "Other" at 4.5% captures uncertainty ahead of Powell's 2026 term end and confirmation battles.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы