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Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС

Market icon

Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС

Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 70%

Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 24%

Другое 5.5%

Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5% 1.8%

Polymarket

$83,343 Объем

Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 70%

Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 24%

Другое 5.5%

Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5% 1.8%

Polymarket

$83,343 Объем

Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%

$5,657 Объем

70%

Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%

$5,289 Объем

24%

Другое

$10,495 Объем

6%

Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%

$11,234 Объем

2%

Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%

$15,997 Объем

1%

Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%

$16,103 Объем

1%

Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%

$6,797 Объем

<1%

Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%

$6,463 Объем

<1%

Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%

$5,308 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.

This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.

Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Объем
$83,343
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026
Дата создания
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%" at 70%, followed by "Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС" has generated $83.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС" is "Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.