Trump's March 4 official nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, whose term ends May 15, has solidified trader consensus at 78% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, aligning with his hawkish stance on inflation amid the Fed's recent hold at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 18 FOMC meeting. Rising oil shocks from escalating Iran tensions have stalled Warsh's Senate confirmation as of March 27, boosting odds for sustained elevated rates while tempering dovish scenarios. Earlier frontrunners like BlackRock's Rick Rieder, now at 8.5% for rates ≤2.5%, have faded post-nomination, with confirmation hurdles and persistent inflationary pressures as key swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПрогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС
Прогнозируемая ставка ФРС по каждому председателю ФРС
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 80%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 12%
Другое 4.5%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5% 2.2%
$25,972 Объем
$25,972 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%
80%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%
12%
Другое
4%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
9%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%
1%
Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%
1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
<1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%
<1%
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5% 80%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5% 12%
Другое 4.5%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5% 2.2%
$25,972 Объем
$25,972 Объем
Dec 31, 2026
Кевин Варш и ставка > 2,5%
$6,589 Объем
80%
Кевин Уорш и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
12%
Другое
$0 Объем
4%
Рик Ридер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
9%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$11,737 Объем
1%
Рик Ридер и ставка > 2,5%
$0 Объем
1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка ≤ 2,5%
$0 Объем
<1%
Кевин Хассетт и ставка > 2,5%
$0 Объем
<1%
Кристофер Уоллер и ставка > 2,5%
$7,645 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trump's March 4 official nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, whose term ends May 15, has solidified trader consensus at 78% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, aligning with his hawkish stance on inflation amid the Fed's recent hold at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 18 FOMC meeting. Rising oil shocks from escalating Iran tensions have stalled Warsh's Senate confirmation as of March 27, boosting odds for sustained elevated rates while tempering dovish scenarios. Earlier frontrunners like BlackRock's Rick Rieder, now at 8.5% for rates ≤2.5%, have faded post-nomination, with confirmation hurdles and persistent inflationary pressures as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
Объем
$25,972Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trump's March 4 official nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, whose term ends May 15, has solidified trader consensus at 78% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, aligning with his hawkish stance on inflation amid the Fed's recent hold at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 18 FOMC meeting. Rising oil shocks from escalating Iran tensions have stalled Warsh's Senate confirmation as of March 27, boosting odds for sustained elevated rates while tempering dovish scenarios. Earlier frontrunners like BlackRock's Rick Rieder, now at 8.5% for rates ≤2.5%, have faded post-nomination, with confirmation hurdles and persistent inflationary pressures as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
Объем
$25,972Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trump's March 4 official nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, whose term ends May 15, has solidified trader consensus at 78% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, aligning with his hawkish stance on inflation amid the Fed's recent hold at 3.5%-3.75% following the March 18 FOMC meeting. Rising oil shocks from escalating Iran tensions have stalled Warsh's Senate confirmation as of March 27, boosting odds for sustained elevated rates while tempering dovish scenarios. Earlier frontrunners like BlackRock's Rick Rieder, now at 8.5% for rates ≤2.5%, have faded post-nomination, with confirmation hurdles and persistent inflationary pressures as key swing factors.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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