Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's dominant position in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race drives the 90.5% trader consensus for a GOP victory, fueled by his consistent double-digit leads in recent polls averaging 57% support versus Democrats' 18-20%. Louisiana's deep-red electorate, where Republicans hold supermajorities and Trump won by 25 points in 2020, bolsters this edge amid Cassidy's strong fundraising and Trump endorsement. The November 5 all-party primary, with top two advancing to a potential December 7 runoff, favors Cassidy avoiding a competitive matchup. Realistic challenges include a GOP vote split elevating a Democrat to second place or an unforeseen scandal eroding his incumbency advantage, though current evidence suggests low probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Луизианы
Победитель выборов в Сенат Луизианы
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
91%
Демократ
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Республиканец
$0 Объем
91%
Демократ
$0 Объем
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Louisiana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
Nov 3, 2026Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy's dominant position in Louisiana's U.S. Senate race drives the 90.5% trader consensus for a GOP victory, fueled by his consistent double-digit leads in recent polls averaging 57% support versus Democrats' 18-20%. Louisiana's deep-red electorate, where Republicans hold supermajorities and Trump won by 25 points in 2020, bolsters this edge amid Cassidy's strong fundraising and Trump endorsement. The November 5 all-party primary, with top two advancing to a potential December 7 runoff, favors Cassidy avoiding a competitive matchup. Realistic challenges include a GOP vote split elevating a Democrat to second place or an unforeseen scandal eroding his incumbency advantage, though current evidence suggests low probability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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