Trader consensus favors 2-3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 50.5%, reflecting a recent lull in attacks amid US-Israeli strikes degrading over 90% of Iran's navy, including 150 vessels destroyed as of late March. Early March saw 18 confirmed hits in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz—mostly tankers damaged by projectiles, drones, or explosive boats, with no sinkings and one seafarer killed—but no incidents reported in the past week through April 1, despite an unverified anti-ship missile claim off Qatar. Shipping rerouting has reduced targets, while Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes via Bab el-Mandeb add 30.6% odds for 10+ if proxy escalation occurs before month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
2–3 51%
10+ 31.0%
4–5 18%
6–7 14%
$35,762 Объем
$35,762 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
2–3
50%
4–5
16%
6–7
14%
8–9
8%
10+
31%
2–3 51%
10+ 31.0%
4–5 18%
6–7 14%
$35,762 Объем
$35,762 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
2–3
$3,646 Объем
50%
4–5
$169 Объем
16%
6–7
$2,163 Объем
14%
8–9
$4,889 Объем
8%
10+
$166 Объем
31%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2-3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 50.5%, reflecting a recent lull in attacks amid US-Israeli strikes degrading over 90% of Iran's navy, including 150 vessels destroyed as of late March. Early March saw 18 confirmed hits in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz—mostly tankers damaged by projectiles, drones, or explosive boats, with no sinkings and one seafarer killed—but no incidents reported in the past week through April 1, despite an unverified anti-ship missile claim off Qatar. Shipping rerouting has reduced targets, while Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes via Bab el-Mandeb add 30.6% odds for 10+ if proxy escalation occurs before month-end.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Объем
$35,762Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 2-3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 50.5%, reflecting a recent lull in attacks amid US-Israeli strikes degrading over 90% of Iran's navy, including 150 vessels destroyed as of late March. Early March saw 18 confirmed hits in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz—mostly tankers damaged by projectiles, drones, or explosive boats, with no sinkings and one seafarer killed—but no incidents reported in the past week through April 1, despite an unverified anti-ship missile claim off Qatar. Shipping rerouting has reduced targets, while Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes via Bab el-Mandeb add 30.6% odds for 10+ if proxy escalation occurs before month-end.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$35,762Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 2-3 ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 at 50.5%, reflecting a recent lull in attacks amid US-Israeli strikes degrading over 90% of Iran's navy, including 150 vessels destroyed as of late March. Early March saw 18 confirmed hits in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz—mostly tankers damaged by projectiles, drones, or explosive boats, with no sinkings and one seafarer killed—but no incidents reported in the past week through April 1, despite an unverified anti-ship missile claim off Qatar. Shipping rerouting has reduced targets, while Houthi threats to resume Red Sea strikes via Bab el-Mandeb add 30.6% odds for 10+ if proxy escalation occurs before month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы