Market icon
Политика·Выборы в США

Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?

Market icon
Политика·Выборы в США

Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?

36–39 27.4%

28–31 8%

44+ 6.9%

32–35 6%

Polymarket

$50,052 Объем

36–39 27.4%

28–31 8%

44+ 6.9%

32–35 6%

Polymarket

$50,052 Объем

<24

$3,590 Объем

5%

24–27

$18,766 Объем

3%

28–31

$21,214 Объем

8%

32–35

$4,014 Объем

6%

36–39

$2,468 Объем

28%

40–43

$0 Объем

50%

44+

$0 Объем

9%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at nearly 50%, reflecting a record 36 announcements to date amid an accelerating retirement wave. This tally surged with five high-profile exits in early March—Reps. Darrell Issa (CA), Tony Gonzales (TX), Burgess Owens (UT), Ryan Zinke (MT), and Kevin Hern (OK, running for Senate)—culminating in Transportation Chair Sam Graves' (MO) March 27 retirement declaration as the 36th. Surpassing 2018's 34 GOP non-runners before Democratic House gains, the pace signals potential for more amid primary filing deadlines and incumbency pressures, positioning 36-39 (28%) as the next likely bin while lower ranges lag. Additional announcements could tip toward 44+ before November resolution.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$50,052
Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 40-43 Republican House incumbents not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at nearly 50%, reflecting a record 36 announcements to date amid an accelerating retirement wave. This tally surged with five high-profile exits in early March—Reps. Darrell Issa (CA), Tony Gonzales (TX), Burgess Owens (UT), Ryan Zinke (MT), and Kevin Hern (OK, running for Senate)—culminating in Transportation Chair Sam Graves' (MO) March 27 retirement declaration as the 36th. Surpassing 2018's 34 GOP non-runners before Democratic House gains, the pace signals potential for more amid primary filing deadlines and incumbency pressures, positioning 36-39 (28%) as the next likely bin while lower ranges lag. Additional announcements could tip toward 44+ before November resolution.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$50,052
Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «40–43» с 50%, за ним следует «36–39» с 28%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 50¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 50%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $50.1K с момента запуска рынка Dec 12, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?» — «40–43» с 50%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 50%. Следующий ближайший исход — «36–39» с 28%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Сколько членов Республиканской палаты не будет баллотироваться в 2026 году?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.